Published online Oct 16, 2022. doi: 10.12998/wjcc.v10.i29.10467
Peer-review started: May 30, 2022
First decision: August 21, 2022
Revised: August 31, 2022
Accepted: September 9, 2022
Article in press: September 9, 2022
Published online: October 16, 2022
Decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) has high mortality, and there are some limitations when applying the common prognostic scores. Nomograms are widely used as prognostic models for many diseases.
Due to the worse prognosis, the overall survival of DLC has attracted much attention from clinicians. Thus, it is necessary to develop a prognostic model to evaluate the outcome of DLC patients.
This study aimed to develop and validate a novel and simple-to-use prognostic nomogram to assess the prognosis of DLC patients.
A total of 493 DLC patients were included in this study and divided into a derivation group (n = 329) and a validation group (n = 164). According to the results of univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, a nomogram model was developed to predict the prognosis of DLC.
The nomogram was developed based on age, mechanical ventilation application, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, mean arterial blood pressure and PaO2/FiO2. The C-indexes, calibration curves and decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram model is a valid tool.
We constructed a nomogram model that could accurately predict the prognosis of DLC patients and showed better prognostic performance than the CTP and MELD scores.
This research established a nomogram that could predict prognosis in DLC patients. In addition, the nomogram was precisely evaluated by internal validation, which may be helpful to clinicians in clinical decision making.