Published online Oct 16, 2022. doi: 10.12998/wjcc.v10.i29.10467
Peer-review started: May 30, 2022
First decision: August 21, 2022
Revised: August 31, 2022
Accepted: September 9, 2022
Article in press: September 9, 2022
Published online: October 16, 2022
Decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) is a stage in the progression of liver cirrhosis and has a high mortality.
To establish and validate a novel and simple-to-use predictive nomogram for evaluating the prognosis of DLC patients.
A total of 493 patients with confirmed DLC were enrolled from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China) between December 2013 and August 2019. The patients were divided into two groups: a derivation group (n = 329) and a validation group (n = 164). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to assess prognostic factors. The performance of the nomogram was determined by its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness.
Age, mechanical ventilation application, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, mean arterial blood pressure, and arterial oxygen partial pressure/inhaled oxygen concentration were used to construct the model. The C-indexes of the nomogram in the derivation and validation groups were 0.780 (95%CI: 0.670-0.889) and 0.792 (95%CI: 0.698-0.886), respectively. The calibration curve exhibited good consistency with the actual observation curve in both sets. In addition, decision curve analysis indicated that our nomogram was useful in clinical practice.
A simple-to-use novel nomogram based on a large Asian cohort was established and validated and exhibited improved performance compared with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh and MELD scores. For patients with DLC, the proposed nomogram may be helpful in guiding clinicians in treatment allocation and may assist in prognosis prediction.
Core Tip: The overall survival of decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) has been one of the main concerns of patients and clinicians. In this research, we established a simple and effective nomogram including age, application of mechanical ventilation, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, mean arterial blood pressure and arterial oxygen partial pressure/inhaled oxygen concentration. This nomogram had better prognostic value than the Child-Turcotte-Pugh and MELD scores. Moreover, the nomogram was validated in the internal cohort, and it may be helpful in guiding clinicians in treatment allocation and in predicting the prognosis of DLC.