Yin MY, Xi LT, Liu L, Zhu JZ, Qian LJ, Xu CF. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality patterns in 2006-2015 and prediction of the epidemiological trend to 2025 in China. World J Clin Cases 2022; 10(14): 4404-4413 [PMID: 35663052 DOI: 10.12998/wjcc.v10.i14.4404]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Chun-Fang Xu, MD, Professor, Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, No. 188 Shi-Zi Road, Suzhou 215006, Jiangsu Province, China. xcf1903@163.com
Research Domain of This Article
Oncology
Article-Type of This Article
Retrospective Study
Open-Access Policy of This Article
This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Min-Yue Yin, Li-Ting Xi, Lu Liu, Jin-Zhou Zhu, Li-Juan Qian, Chun-Fang Xu, Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou 215006, Jiangsu Province, China
Author contributions: Yin MY and Xi LT contributed equally to the study, including the study design, data acquisition and analysis and manuscript writing; Liu L and Qian LJ participated in the above processes as assistants; Zhu JZ and Xu CF contributed to making an initial modification and preparing the final revision, respectively.
Supported byPrimary Research & Social Development Plan of Jiangsu Province, No. BE2018659; and the Youth Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 82000540.
Institutional review board statement: The study was reviewed and approved by the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University Institutional Review Board.
Informed consent statement: Patients were not required to give informed consent to the study because the analysis used anonymous clinical data that were obtained after each patient agreed to treatment by written consent.
Conflict-of-interest statement: In terms of conflict of interest, we have nothing to disclose. All authors have reviewed the final version of the manuscript and approve it for review.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Chun-Fang Xu, MD, Professor, Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, No. 188 Shi-Zi Road, Suzhou 215006, Jiangsu Province, China. xcf1903@163.com
Received: July 31, 2021 Peer-review started: July 31, 2021 First decision: September 5, 2021 Revised: September 9, 2021 Accepted: March 25, 2022 Article in press: March 25, 2022 Published online: May 16, 2022 Processing time: 285 Days and 20.8 Hours
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
Research background
The incidence of pancreatic cancers has increased rapidly in recent years in China, with the low survival rate.
Research motivation
The differences in the age, sex and regional distributions of pancreatic cancers are unknown.
Research objectives
To describe the epidemiological trends of pancreatic cancer in China and to conclude the international differences in distributions of pancreatic cancers between the world.
Research methods
Several datasets are used to demonstrate the epidemiological trends of pancreatic cancers in China from 2006 to 2015. Linear regression models were used to estimate the morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancers in China in 2025.
Research results
The incidence rate of pancreatic cancers increased from 3.65 per 100,000 to 4.31 per 100000 in 2015 and was estimated to rise up to 5.52 per 100000 in 2025. The mortality of pancreatic cancers increased from 3.35 per 100000 to 3.78 per 100000 in 2015 and was estimated to rise up to 4.6 per 100000 in 2025. The age distribution of pancreatic cancer was concentrated after 45 years and especially between 85 and 89 years. The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancers are generally higher in men than in women, and China's are generally higher than the world average. Additionally, disability-adjusted life years attributed to pancreatic cancer in China were 197.22 years per 100000, above the average level of around the world.
Research conclusions
The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancers all around the world have been increasing rapidly. Efforts need to be made according to differences in age, sex, regional and international distributions of pancreatic cancers.
Research perspectives
The prognosis of pancreatic cancers is so poor that the mortality is close to the morbidity around the world. Modification of high-risk factors, further basic research, multidisciplinary advances in imaging and international collaborations are necessary to implement to prevent pancreatic cancer and to improve prognosis.
