Published online Oct 27, 2021. doi: 10.4240/wjgs.v13.i10.1258
Peer-review started: May 20, 2021
First decision: June 22, 2021
Revised: July 1, 2021
Accepted: September 19, 2021
Article in press: September 19, 2021
Published online: October 27, 2021
Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) may cause pulmonary embolus leading to late deaths. The systemic inflammatory and hypercoagulable state of moderate and severe acute pancreatitis (non-mild acute pancreatitis, NMAP) patients may contribute to the development of venous thromboembolism. Accurate prediction of DVT is conducive to clinical decisions.
There is a lack of a scoring model for predicting the development of DVT in NMAP patients.
We aimed to develop a prediction model for DVT in old NMAP patients.
Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to select independent risk factors associated with DVT. The selected risk factors were included in the nomogram. A validation set was constructed using bootstrapping with 100 resamplings. The accuracy and utility of the nomogram were evaluated by calibration curve and decision curve analysis, respectively.
Eighty DVT patients and 140 non-DVT patients were included in this study. Eight factors including age, sex, surgery times, D-dimer, neutrophils, any organ failure, blood culture, and classification constitute the prediction model. This model achieved good concordance indexes of 0.827 (95%CI: 0.769-0.885) and 0.803 (95%CI: 0.743-0.860) in the training and validation set, respectively.
A reliable and effective nomogram model that can predict DVT in old patients with NMAP was constructed.
The usability of the new model needs further validation by other center data.