Published online Aug 16, 2022. doi: 10.12998/wjcc.v10.i23.8186
Peer-review started: January 24, 2022
First decision: March 8, 2022
Revised: May 12, 2022
Accepted: July 11, 2022
Article in press: July 11, 2022
Published online: August 16, 2022
Processing time: 189 Days and 0.4 Hours
Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) refers to a syndrome precipitated by sudden worsening of chronic liver disease, seen as severe acute jaundice, coagulopathy, and other manifestations of liver failure. The short-term mortality rate of ACLF is 50%-90%.
Early and accurate assessment of disease severity and short-term prognosis in patients with ACLF can help determine the timing of liver transplantation, which can significantly improve the survival rate of patients with ACLF.
To explore the independent predictors of short-term prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related ACLF and to establish a predictive short-term prognosis model for HBV-related ACLF.
Patients were divided into either a survival group or a death group according to their survival 3 mo after diagnosis. Data of relevant observation indicators of patients were retrospectively collected and analyzed. After determining the influencing factors of short-term prognosis, a prognostic model was established based on binary logistics regression and the prediction value of this model was tested by comparing with selected classical prognostic models.
Univariate analysis showed significant differences in age, platelet count, total bilirubin, blood urea nitrogen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, HBsAg, alpha-fetoprotein, Golgi protein 73 (GP73), international normalized ratio, stage of liver failure, classification of liver failure, and incidence of complications between the groups. In addition, GP73, stage of liver failure, pulmonary infection, hepatorenal syndrome, and HBsAg were independent risk factors for short-term prognosis in patients with HBV-related ACLF. The predictive efficacy of the GP73-ACLF score prognostic model was significantly better than those of both the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and MELD-Na score models.
The GP73-ACLF model has good predictive value, while GP73, stage of liver disease, pulmonary infection, hepatorenal syndrome, and HBsAg are independent risk factors for short-term prognosis in patients with HBV-related ACLF.
Combined with the King’s College Hospital Criteria, the low specificity of GP73-ACLF prognostic model can be greatly enhanced; this is worth verifying in subsequent studies.