Ban B, Shang A, Shi J. Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting metachronous peritoneal metastasis in colorectal cancer: A retrospective study. World J Gastrointest Oncol 2023; 15(1): 112-127 [PMID: 36684053 DOI: 10.4251/wjgo.v15.i1.112]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Jian Shi, MD, PhD, Associate Chief Physician, Associate Professor, Department of General Surgery, The Second Hospital of Jilin University, No. 218 Ziqiang Street, Nanguan District, Changchun 130041, Jilin Province, China. 383888697@qq.com
Research Domain of This Article
Gastroenterology & Hepatology
Article-Type of This Article
Retrospective Study
Open-Access Policy of This Article
This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
World J Gastrointest Oncol. Jan 15, 2023; 15(1): 112-127 Published online Jan 15, 2023. doi: 10.4251/wjgo.v15.i1.112
Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting metachronous peritoneal metastasis in colorectal cancer: A retrospective study
Bo Ban, An Shang, Jian Shi
Bo Ban, An Shang, Jian Shi, Department of General Surgery, The Second Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun 130041, Jilin Province, China
Author contributions: Ban B designed and performed the research and wrote the paper; Shi J designed the research and supervised the report; Shang A designed the research and contributed to the analysis.
Supported bythe Science and Technology Development Project of Jilin Province, No. 2020SCZT079.
Institutional review board statement: This study was reviewed and approved by the Ethics Committee of The Second Hospital of Jilin University (Approval No. 2021-003).
Informed consent statement: The informed consent was waived from the patients.
Conflict-of-interest statement: All the authors report no relevant conflicts of interest for this article.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Jian Shi, MD, PhD, Associate Chief Physician, Associate Professor, Department of General Surgery, The Second Hospital of Jilin University, No. 218 Ziqiang Street, Nanguan District, Changchun 130041, Jilin Province, China. 383888697@qq.com
Received: September 23, 2022 Peer-review started: September 23, 2022 First decision: November 16, 2022 Revised: November 23, 2022 Accepted: December 21, 2022 Article in press: December 21, 2022 Published online: January 15, 2023
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
Research background
The prediction and early detection of metachronous peritoneal metastasis (m-PM) remain a difficult task in clinical practice. Few studies have reported the genetic alterations of m-PM.
Research motivation
To explore risk factors in patients with m-PM after curative-intent colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery.
Research objectives
To establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of m-PM in CRC within 3 years after surgery.
Research methods
We used the clinical data of 878 patients at the Second Hospital of Jilin University, between January 1, 2014 and January 31, 2019. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 2:1. All data were analyzed using SPSS version 26.0 and R version 4.0.3.
Research results
The 3-year cumulative incidence of m-PM was 11.1% (65/586) in the training cohort and 9.9% (29/292) in the validation cohort. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and multiple logistic regressions identified that right colon cancer, pT4, histological types of mucinous adenocarcinoma and signet-ring cell carcinoma, elevated carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125), v-raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B (BRAF) mutation, and microsatellite instability-high-frequency (MSI-H) were independent risk factors for m-PM in CRC. These six predictors could be used to establish a nomogram for predicting m-PM. The nomogram model showed good discrimination accuracy, calibration, and reliability in both training and validation cohorts.
Research conclusions
The nomogram model based on six predictors (right colon cancer, pT4, and histological types of mucinous adenocarcinoma and signet-ring cell carcinoma, elevated CA125, BRAF mutation, and MSI-H) showed good discrimination and high accuracy.
Research perspectives
The nomogram requires further validation in multicenter prospective clinical studies.
