Published online Apr 28, 2022. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v28.i16.1671
Peer-review started: November 16, 2021
First decision: January 11, 2022
Revised: January 21, 2022
Accepted: March 16, 2022
Article in press: March 16, 2022
Published online: April 28, 2022
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a spectrum of clinical syndromes with serious involvement of the lung and frequent effection of the liver and hemostatic system.
Development of a prediction model using objective, inexpensive, and readily available items is needed for patients with COVID-19.
To investigate whether the aspartate transferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) is associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality among patients with COVID-19 and develop a predictive model using objective and readily available factors.
A retrospective cohort study was carried out with 353 consecutive adult patients admitted to Al-Azhar University Hospital (Assiut, Egypt) and Chest Hospital (Assiut, Egypt) with confirmed COVID-19 from July 1, 2020 to October 1, 2020.
The prediction model comprised APRI alone (APRI model), and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for the prediction of mortality was 0.66 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.56-0.76]. A modified model of APRI that included age and serum ferritin (APRI-plus model) had better accuracy than the APRI model, as the AUROC became 0.90 (95%CI: 0.86-0.95) (P < 0.0001).
APRI-plus among patients with COVID-19 showed good performance in predicting mortality. A prediction model could help stratify the risk of mortality.
Further studies are required to investigate this association. Validation of the APRI-plus is required.