Published online Nov 21, 2019. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v25.i43.6451
Peer-review started: August 19, 2019
First decision: September 10, 2019
Revised: September 17, 2019
Accepted: October 17, 2019
Article in press: October 17, 2019
Published online: November 21, 2019
Processing time: 94 Days and 6.1 Hours
Because of the powerful abilities of self-learning and handling complex biological information, artificial neural network (ANN) models have been widely applied to disease diagnosis, imaging analysis, and prognosis prediction. However, there has been no trained preoperative ANN (preope-ANN) model to preoperatively predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer (GC).
To establish a neural network model that can predict long-term survival of GC patients before surgery to evaluate the tumor condition before the operation.
The clinicopathological data of 1608 GC patients treated from January 2011 to April 2015 at the Department of Gastric Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (70%) for establishing a preope-ANN model and a testing set (30%). The prognostic evaluation ability of the preope-ANN model was compared with that of the American Joint Commission on Cancer (8th edition) clinical TNM (cTNM) and pathological TNM (pTNM) staging through the receiver operating characteristic curve, Akaike information criterion index, Harrell's C index, and likelihood ratio chi-square.
We used the variables that were statistically significant factors for the 3-year overall survival as input-layer variables to develop a preope-ANN in the training set. The survival curves within each score of the preope-ANN had good discrimination (P < 0.05). Comparing the preope-ANN model, cTNM, and pTNM in both the training and testing sets, the preope-ANN model was superior to cTNM in predictive discrimination (C index), predictive homogeneity (likelihood ratio chi-square), and prediction accuracy (area under the curve). The prediction efficiency of the preope-ANN model is similar to that of pTNM.
The preope-ANN model can accurately predict the long-term survival of GC patients, and its predictive efficiency is not inferior to that of pTNM stage.
Core tip: We established an artificial neural network model before surgery that can predict the long-term survival of patients with gastric cancer, and its predictive efficiency is not inferior to that of pathological TNM stage.