Observational Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2021.
World J Clin Cases. Oct 6, 2021; 9(28): 8388-8403
Published online Oct 6, 2021. doi: 10.12998/wjcc.v9.i28.8388
Table 1 Baseline clinical and laboratory characteristics
CharacteristicsTraining cohort, n = 681Validation cohort, n = 296P value
Age (yr)63.0 (51.0-71.0)49.0 (36.0-61.0)< 0.001
Gender (male)338 (49.6%)146 (49.3%)0.985
BNP (ng/L)27.9 (11.5-64.5)37.6 (37.6-37.8)< 0.001
CRP (mg/L)13.7 (2.5-53.6)11.4 (5.0-26.2)0.073
D-dimer (mg/L)0.6 (0.3-1.4)0.4 (0.3-0.5)< 0.001
Albumin (g/L)37.4 (33.7-40.8)43.0 (40.7-44.8)< 0.001
C3 (g/L)1.1 (1.0-1.2)1.1 (1.1-1.1)0.382
AST (U/L)27.0 (20.0-38.0)26.3 (21.0-34.2)0.230
APTT (s)29.7 (26.5-33.5)35.1 (32.4-37.8)< 0.001
K+ (mmol/L)3.9 (3.6-4.3)3.8 (3.6-4.0)< 0.001
LYMPH (109/L)1.1 (0.8-1.5)1.3 (1.0-1.7)< 0.001
IgA (g/L)2.6 (2.0-3.3)2.0 (2.0-2.0)< 0.001
LDH (U/L)214.0 (169.0-294.0)224.0 (179.0-397.8)0.001
Hgb (g/L)126.0 (116.0-135.0)137.0 (126.0-146.0)< 0.001
GLU (mmoL/L)5.4 (4.7-6.8)5.8 (5.3-6.6)< 0.001
NEUT (109/L)3.2 (2.4-4.4)2.8 (2.0-3.6)< 0.001
CK (U/L)71.0 (46.0-133.0)61.0 (61.0-61.0)0.001
Cr (μmoI/L)65.9 (53.6-81.5)63.0 (52.5-77.0)0.033
ALT (U/L)24.0 (15.0-37.0)24.0 (16.0-35.3)0.465
PLT (109/L)192.0 (152.0-258.0)184.0 (143.8-227.0)0.002
PCT (ug/L)0.05 (0.05-0.06)0.04 (0.03-0.06)< 0.001
TBil (μmol/L)8.9 (6.6-11.9)10.2 (7.9-13.9)< 0.001
WBC (109/L)5.0 (3.9-6.3)4.7 (3.7-5.8)0.032
NLR2.8 (1.9-4.5)2.1 (1.4-3.2)< 0.001
LAC (mmoL/L)2.8 (2.3-3.4)1.4 (1.1-1.5)< 0.001
ALT: Alanine aminotransferase; APTT: Activated partial thromboplastin time; AST: Aspartate aminotransferase; BNP: Brain natriuretic peptide; CK: Creatine kinase; Cr: Creatinine; CRP: C-reactive protein; GLU: Glucose; Hgb: Hemoglobin; IgA: Immunoglobulin A; LAC: Lactate; LDH: Lactate dehydrogenase; LYMPH: Lymphocyte; NEUT: Neutrophils; NLR: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; PCT: Procalcitonin; PLT: Platelet; TBil: Total bilirubin; WBC: White blood cell.
Table 2 Multivariate logistic regression models of risk severity in the training cohort
FeatureUnivariate logistic regression
Multivariate LR
OR (95%CI)
P value
OR (95%CI)
P value
Age, yr2.64 (2.06–3.37)< 0.0012.68 (1.99-3.61)< 0.001
BNP1.53 (1.34–1.75)< 0.001
CRP2.01 (1.68–2.40)< 0.001
D-dimer1.13 (1.06–1.20)< 0.001
Albumin0.37 (0.29–0.48)< 0.0010.62 (0.46–0.83)0.001
Hcv_ab1.005 (0.999–1.011)0.083
AST1.50 (1.29–1.75)< 0.001
CysC1.32 (1.19–1.46)< 0.001
APTT1.80 (1.45–2.23)< 0.001
Cr1.10 (1.05–1.16)< 0.0011.11 (1.06–1.15)< 0.001
Myoglobin1.64 (1.44–1.88)< 0.001
CK1.12 (1.05–1.20)< 0.001
PCT1.008 (1.003–1.014)< 0.001
Tp_ab1.001 (0.999–1.003)0.231
BUN1.70 (1.44–1.99)< 0.001
PT1.65 (1.36–1.99)< 0.001
LAC0.81 (0.68–0.98)0.012
LDH2.36 (1.91–2.93)< 0.0012.09 (1.61–2.7)< 0.001
Hgb0.69 (0.58–0.82)< 0.001
GLU1.28 (1.15–1.44)< 0.0011.16 (1.02–1.31)0.023
HBeAg1.010 (0.920–1.108)0.156
HBsAg0.999 (0.995–1.003)0.577
NLR1.90 (1.61–2.25)< 0.0011.27 (1.06–1.51)0.008
APTT: Activated partial thromboplastin time; AST: Aspartate transaminase; BNP: Brain natriuretic peptide; BUN: Blood urea nitrogen; CI: Confidence interval; CK: Creatine kinase; Cr: Creatinine; CRP: C-reactive protein; CysC: Cystatin C; GLU: Glucose; HBeAg: Hepatitis B e antigen; HBsAg: Hepatitis B surface antigen Hcv_ab: Hepatitis C virus antibody; Hgb: Hemoglobin; LAC: Lactate; LDH: Lactate dehydrogenase; LR: Logistic regression; NLR: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; OR: Odds ratio; PCT: Procalcitonin; PT: prothrombin time; Tp_ab: Treponema pallidium antibody.
Table 3 Reclassification
Initial modelUpdated model
Predicted probability according to initial model
Statistics
< 13%13%-20%> 20%% ReclassifiedNRI (95%CI)P value
Model ARF< 13%189469230.363 (0.148-0.579)< 0.001
13%-20%612548
> 20%2131452
LR< 13%2081719150.246 (0.029-0.463)0.026
13%-20%143687
> 20%841741
LRRF< 13%194360160.167 (-0.024-0.357)0.087
13%-20%317429
> 20%0182443
CI: Confidence interval; LR: Logistic regression; NRI: Net Reclassification Index; RF: Random forest.