Development and validation of a circulating tumor DNA-based optimization-prediction model for short-term postoperative recurrence of endometrial cancer

Table 1 Demographic and clinicopathological characteristics of patients with endometrial cancer (N = 437), n (%)

Variables	Levels	Training set (n = 294)	Validation Set (n = 143)	χ2/Z	P value
Recurrence	No	243 (82.7)	123 (86.0)	0.799	0.372
	Yes	51 (17.3)	20 (14.0)
Follow up (months)	Median (IQR)	19.10 (10.40, 29.38)	18.23 (9.97, 29.03)	-1.007	0.314
Age (yr)	< 60	116 (39.5)	55 (38.5)	0.040	0.842
	≥ 60	178 (60.5)	88 (61.5)
Histological type	Ⅰ	241 (82.0)	120 (83.9)	0.253	0.615
	Ⅱ	53 (18.0)	23 (16.1)
Smoking	No	275 (93.5)	135 (94.4)	0.125	0.724
	Yes	19 (6.5)	8 (5.6)
Hypertension	No	244 (83.0)	121 (84.6)	0.184	0.668
	Yes	50 (17.0)	22 (15.4)
ctDNA	Negative	222 (75.5)	112 (78.3)	0.422	0.516
	Positive	72 (24.5)	31 (21.7)
Diabetes	No	267 (90.8)	127 (88.8)	0.436	0.509
	Yes	27 (9.2)	16 (11.2)
Myometrial invasion	< 1/2	119 (40.5)	63 (44.1)	0.507	0.476
	≥ 1/2	175 (59.5)	80 (55.9)
Grade	G1	98 (33.3)	54 (37.8)	0.885	0.642
	G2	145 (49.3)	67 (46.9)
	G3	51 (17.4)	22 (15.3)
FIGO	Ⅰ	88 (29.9)	44 (30.8)	0.719	0.869
	Ⅱ	71 (24.1)	32 (22.4)
	Ⅲ	94 (32.1)	50 (35.0)
	Ⅳ	41 (13.9)	17 (11.8)
Postoperative adjuvant therapy	No	90 (30.6)	48 (33.6)	0.389	0.533
	Yes	204 (69.4)	95 (66.4)
Lymph node metastasis	No	173 (58.8)	81 (56.6)	0.191	0.662
	Yes	121 (41.2)	62 (43.4)
Postoperative CA125 (U/mL)	< 19	174 (59.2)	84 (58.7)	0.008	0.930
	≥ 19	120 (40.8)	59 (41.3)

ctDNA: Circulating tumor DNA; CA125: Carcinoembryonic antigen 125; FIGO: International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics; IQR: Interquartile range.

Table 2 Results of the univariate Cox regression analysis of related factors in patients with endometrial cancer (N = 437)

Variables	HR	95%CI	P value
Age	0.803	0.457-1.413	0.447
Histological type	3.508	2.018-6.099	0.001
Smoking	3.409	1.593-7.298	0.002
Hypertension	1.227	0.597-2.524	0.578
ctDNA	13.009	6.655-25.431	0.001
Diabetes	0.524	0.163-1.684	0.278
Myometrial invasion	3.762	1.879-7.533	0.001
Grade	5.652	3.465-9.218	0.001
FIGO	2.015	1.507-2.694	0.001
Postoperative adjuvant therapy	0.487	0.280-0.848	0.011
Lymph node metastasis	5.612	2.874-10.959	0.001
Postoperative CA125	8.024	3.896-16.529	0.001

ctDNA: Circulating tumor DNA; CA125: Carcinoembryonic antigen 125; HR: Hazard ratio; FIGO: International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

Table 3 Results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis of related factors in patients with endometrial cancer (N = 437)

Variables	HR	95%CI	P value
Smoking	1.125	0.501-2.530	0.775
ctDNA	3.864	1.576-9.472	0.003
Myometrial invasion	1.477	0.713-3.062	0.294
Grade	1.976	1.120-3.485	0.019
Postoperative CA125	3.740	1.739-8.046	0.001

ctDNA: Circulating tumor DNA; CA125: Carcinoembryonic antigen 125; HR: Hazard ratio.