Development and validation of a predictive model for spinal fracture risk in osteoporosis patients

Table 1 Patient characteristics, n (%)

Characteristics	Fracture group (n = 40)	Non-fracture group (n = 40)	P value
Age (mean ± SD, yr)	67.5 ± 11.8	61.2 ± 12.2	0.024
Gender (Female)	22 (55.0)	22 (55.0)	1.000
BMI (mean ± SD, kg/m²)	22.8 ± 3.5	24.6 ± 3.7	0.004
Smoking history	19 (47.5)	9 (22.5)	0.011
Alcohol consumption	7 (17.5)	9 (22.5)	0.799
Glucocorticoid use	4 (10.0)	3 (7.5)	0.737
BMD (mean ± SD, g/cm²)	0.70 ± 0.13	0.85 ± 0.10	< 0.001
Vertebral trabecular changes	28 (70.0)	18 (45.0)	0.021
Previous vertebral fractures	23 (57.5)	8 (20.0)	< 0.001

P values are based on Student's t-tests or Mann-Whitney U tests for continuous variables and χ² or Fisher's exact tests for categorical variables. BMI: Body mass index; BMD: Bone mineral density.

Table 2 Logistic regression analysis for fracture risk prediction

Variables	Univariable OR (95%CI)	P value	Multivariable OR (95%CI)	P value
Age (yr)	1.04 (1.00-1.08)	0.044	1.04 (1.00-1.08)	0.034
Gender (Female)	0.62 (0.27-1.42)	0.258	0.32 (0.12-0.86)	0.022
BMI (kg/m²)	0.85 (0.76-0.95)	0.003	0.88 (0.78-1.00)	0.046
Smoking history	3.09 (1.29-7.41)	0.011	2.30 (0.87-6.10)	0.092
BMD (g/cm²)	0.01 (0.00-0.10)	< 0.001	0.02 (0.01-0.21)	0.001
Vertebral trabecular changes	2.80 (1.22-6.44)	0.016	4.29 (1.61-11.41)	0.004
Previous vertebral fractures	5.37 (2.12-13.60)	< 0.001	3.83 (1.59-9.22)	0.003

P values are based on univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses with backward elimination. BMI: Body mass index; BMD: Bone mineral density; OR: Odds ratios.