Nair N, Hu Z, Du D, Gongora E. Risk prediction model for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in adult cardiac allograft recipients. World J Transplant 2021; 11(3): 54-69 [PMID: 33816146 DOI: 10.5500/wjt.v11.i3.54]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Nandini Nair, MD, PhD, Professor, Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, Texas Tech Health Sciences Center, 3601 4th Street, Lubbock, TX 79430, United States. nandini.nair@ttuhsc.edu
Research Domain of This Article
Transplantation
Article-Type of This Article
Retrospective Cohort Study
Open-Access Policy of This Article
This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
World J Transplant. Mar 18, 2021; 11(3): 54-69 Published online Mar 18, 2021. doi: 10.5500/wjt.v11.i3.54
Risk prediction model for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in adult cardiac allograft recipients
Nandini Nair, Zhiyong Hu, Dongping Du, Enrique Gongora
Nandini Nair, Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, Texas Tech Health Sciences Center, Lubbock, TX 79430, United States
Zhiyong Hu, Dongping Du, Department of Industrial, Manufacturing and Systems Engineering, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, United States
Enrique Gongora, Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL 35233, United States
Author contributions: Nair N, Du D and Hu Z participated in the data acquisition, research design, data analysis, and the writing of the paper; Gongora E contributed to conception of the research idea.
Institutional review board statement: This is to certify that this study was done on a public database with decoded data and no patient identifiable information. The database was provided by the United Network of Organ Sharing. Hence the study is exempted from the Institutional Review Board review.
Informed consent statement: The study used a decoded database provided by the United Network of Organ sharing with no patient identifiers hence there was no requirement for informed consent. This was a retrospective database analysis.
Conflict-of-interest statement: None of the authors have any conflict of interest with respect to this research work.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
STROBE statement: The authors have read the STROBE Statement-checklist of items, and the manuscript was prepared and revised according to the STROBE Statement-checklist of items.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Nandini Nair, MD, PhD, Professor, Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, Texas Tech Health Sciences Center, 3601 4th Street, Lubbock, TX 79430, United States. nandini.nair@ttuhsc.edu
Received: September 6, 2020 Peer-review started: September 6, 2020 First decision: December 1, 2020 Revised: December 25, 2020 Accepted: February 19, 2021 Article in press: February 19, 2021 Published online: March 18, 2021 Processing time: 192 Days and 14.4 Hours
Core Tip
Core Tip: We retrospectively analyzed 23736 heart-transplant recipients between 2010 and 2015. Eight risk factors associated with post-transplant cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma were identified, including older age, male sex, lower human leukocyte antigen mismatch level, white race, malignancy at listing, diagnosis with restrictive myopathy or hypertrophic myopathy, heart re-transplant, induction therapy with OKT3 or daclizumab. A multivariate risk prediction model was developed with c-statistics of ≥ 0.77 in both derivation and validation sets. A risk scoring system was designed to stratify patients into 4 risk groups based on their total risk scores. The predicted and observed 5-year probability of developing cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma match well among different risk groups.
