Published online Sep 24, 2016. doi: 10.5500/wjt.v6.i3.599
Peer-review started: March 17, 2016
First decision: April 18, 2016
Revised: July 4, 2016
Accepted: July 29, 2016
Article in press: August 1, 2016
Published online: September 24, 2016
Processing time: 192 Days and 4.6 Hours
To characterize major determinants of 20-year survival after liver transplantation (LT).
This longitudinal single-institution study includes 313 consecutive patients who received a LT between 1988 and 1992. Pretransplant clinical characteristics and laboratory values were assessed and compared between 20-year survivors and non-survivors. Particular attention was paid to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (labMELD)-score and the Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index (ET-DRI) to unravel their impact on 20-year survival after LT.
Twenty-year survivors were significantly younger (44 vs 50 years, P = 0.001), more likely to be female (49% vs 36%, P = 0.03) and less likely to be obese at the time of LT (19% vs 32%, P = 0.011). Mean labMELD-score (P = 0.156), rate of high-urgency LT (P = 0.210), cold-ischemia time (P = 0.994), rate of retransplantation (P = 0.12) and average donor age (28 vs 33 years, P = 0.099) were not statistically different. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was higher among survivors (P = 0.007). ET-DRI > 1.4 (P = 0.020) and donor age ≥ 30 years (P < 0.022) had significant influence on 20-year survival. The overall survival was not significantly impacted by labMELD-score categories (P = 0.263).
LT offers excellent long-term results in case of optimal donor and recipient conditions. However, mainly due to the current organ shortage, these ideal circumstances are rarely given; thus algorithms for donor-recipient matching need to be refined, in order to enable a maximum benefit for the recipients of high quality as well as marginal organs.
Core tip: We compare characteristics of 20-year survivors and non-survivors after liver transplantation. The lab model for end-stage liver disease-score seems not to be an adequate tool for predicting long-term (20 years) outcome. The Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index (ET-DRI) has a significant impact on long-term survival. While close to 60% of patients that received a donor organ with an ET-DRI < 1.2 survived for 20 years and longer, only less than 40% of the patients with an ET-DRI > 1.4 survived the same number of years. Only about 20% survivors had overweight before transplantation, compared to about 33% non-survivors. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was higher among survivors.