Systematic Reviews
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2024. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Transplant. Mar 18, 2024; 14(1): 88891
Published online Mar 18, 2024. doi: 10.5500/wjt.v14.i1.88891
Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review
Gidion Chongo, Jonathan Soldera
Gidion Chongo, Jonathan Soldera, Department of Gastroenterology, University of South Wales, Cardiff CF37 1DL, United Kingdom
Author contributions: Both authors contributed to the conceptualization and design of the study, drafting of the manuscript, data acquisition, analysis and interpretation as well as critical revision of the manuscript.
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
PRISMA 2009 Checklist statement: The authors have read the PRISMA 2009 Checklist, and the manuscript was prepared and revised according to the PRISMA 2009 Checklist.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Jonathan Soldera, MD, MSc, Instructor, Department of Gastroenterology, University of South Wales, Llantwit Rd, Pontypridd, Cardiff CF37 1DL, United Kingdom. jonathansoldera@gmail.com
Received: October 13, 2023
Peer-review started: October 13, 2023
First decision: November 2, 2023
Revised: November 8, 2023
Accepted: December 11, 2023
Article in press: December 11, 2023
Published online: March 18, 2024
Abstract
BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease. However, the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge. Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates. Traditionally, scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process. Nevertheless, the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence models.

AIM

To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT, comparing their performance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines, we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database. Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year, age, or gender. Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English studies, review articles, case reports, conference papers, studies with missing data, or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.

RESULTS

Our search yielded a total of 64 articles, with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. Among the selected studies, 60.8% originated from the United States and China combined. Only one pediatric study met the criteria. Notably, 91% of the studies were published within the past five years. ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (ranging from 0.6 to 1) across all studies, surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems. Random forest exhibited superior predictive capabilities for 90-d mortality following LT, sepsis, and acute kidney injury (AKI). In contrast, gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease, pneumonia, and AKI.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT, marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Keywords: Liver transplantation, Machine learning models, Prognostication, Allograft allocation, Artificial intelligence

Core Tip: This systematic review highlights the promising role of machine learning (ML) models in improving prognostication for liver transplantation (LT). ML models consistently outperformed traditional scoring systems, demonstrating excellent predictive capabilities for various post-transplant complications, including mortality, sepsis, and acute kidney injury. The findings underscore the potential of ML in enhancing decision-making related to organ allocation and LT, representing a substantial advancement in prognostication methods.