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Varadarajan P, Solomon RS, Subramani S, Subramanian R, Srividya G, Raghunathan E. Cardiovascular involvement in multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and midterm follow-up from a pediatric tertiary center in India. World J Clin Pediatr 2025; 14:100453. [DOI: 10.5409/wjcp.v14.i1.100453] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2024] [Revised: 10/02/2024] [Accepted: 10/30/2024] [Indexed: 12/20/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) with coronavirus disease 2019, there was paucity of data from low-income and middle-income countries on cardiovascular involvement and its longitudinal outcomes. We planned to estimate the pattern of cardiovascular involvement among children with MIS-C and its mid-term outcomes.
AIM To determine association between cardiovascular abnormalities and clinical and laboratory parameters. To study the time-line for resolution of various abnormalities.
METHODS In this prospective study done in a tertiary care hospital, 270 were recruited from June 2020 to January 2022. Baseline demographic data and clinical presentation were recorded. Laboratory parameters and echocardiography were done at admission. Follow-up was done at 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year after diagnosis. Descriptive statistics were used for parametric and non-parametric data. Risk factors were identified by multivariate regression analysis.
RESULTS The 211 (78.2%) had cardiac involvement and 102 needed intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Cardiovascular abnormalities observed were shock 123 (45.6%), coronary dilatation 28 (10.4%), coronary aneurysm 77 (28.5%), left ventricular (LV) dysfunction 78 (29.3%), mitral regurgitation (MR) 77 (28.5%) and pericardial effusion 98 (36.3%). Coronary artery aneurysm/dilatation during follow-up at 2 weeks and 1 year were 25.7% and 0.9% respectively. Multivariate regression analysis revealed breathlessness [odds ratio (OR) = 3.91, 95%CI: 1.25-12.21, P = 0.019] and hi-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) support (OR = 8.5, 95%CI: 1.06-68.38, P = 0.044) as predictors of cardiovascular involvement. Higher mean age (OR = 1.16, 95%CI: 1.02-1.32, P = 0.026), breathlessness (OR = 4.99, 95%CI: 2.05-12.20, P < 0.001), gallop (OR = 4.45, 95%CI: 0.41-2.52, P = 0.016), MR (OR = 3.61, 95%CI: 1.53-8.53, P = 0.004) and invasive ventilation (OR = 4.01, 95%CI: 1.28-12.58, P = 0.017) were predictive of LV dysfunction. Altered sensorium (OR = 4.96, 95%CI: 2.23-11.02, P < 0.001), headache (OR = 6.61, 95%CI: 1.46-29.92, P = 0.014), HFNC (OR = 7.03, 95%CI: 2.04-24.29, P = 0.002), non-rebreathing mask usage (OR = 21.13, 95%CI: 9.00-49.61, P < 0.001) and invasive ventilation (OR = 5.64, 95%CI: 1.42-22.45, P = 0.014) were risk factors for shock. Anemia was a risk factor for coronary involvement (OR = 3.09, 95%CI: 1.79- 5.34, P < 0.001).
CONCLUSION Significant number of children with MIS-C had cardiovascular involvement contributing to higher ICU management. Although shock resolved quickly, resolution of ventricular function and coronary abnormalities were slower, and hence warrants a structured long-term follow-up protocol.
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Affiliation(s)
- Poovazhagi Varadarajan
- Department of Pediatric Intensive Care, Institute of Child Health and Hospital for Children, Madras Medical College, Chennai 600003, Tamil Nādu, India
| | - Ritchie Sharon Solomon
- Department of Pediatric Cardiology, Institute of Child Health and Hospital for Children, Madras Medical College, Chennai 600003, Tamil Nādu, India
| | - Seenivasan Subramani
- Department of Pediatric Intensive Care, Institute of Child Health and Hospital for Children, Madras Medical College, Chennai 600003, Tamil Nādu, India
| | - Ramesh Subramanian
- Department of Pediatric Intensive Care, Institute of Child Health and Hospital for Children, Madras Medical College, Chennai 600003, Tamil Nādu, India
| | - Gomathy Srividya
- Department of Pediatric Intensive Care, Institute of Child Health and Hospital for Children, Madras Medical College, Chennai 600003, Tamil Nādu, India
| | - Elilarasi Raghunathan
- Department of Pediatrics, Institute of Child Health and Hospital for Children, Madras Medical College, Chennai 600003, Tamil Nādu, India
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Park JM, Seol JH, Yun B, Yang D. Risk Factors for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Non-responsiveness and Coronary Ectasia in Korean Patients With Kawasaki Disease. Clin Pediatr (Phila) 2024:99228241271897. [PMID: 39123305 DOI: 10.1177/00099228241271897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/12/2024]
Abstract
We aimed to determine the risk factors for non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and coronary ectasia in Korean children with Kawasaki disease (KD) and compare the efficacy of previously published Japanese and Chinese risk scoring systems in the same cohort. We retrospectively reviewed 459 KD cases diagnosed from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2022. Age (odds ratio [OR]: 0.983; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.968-0.999), change in extremities (OR: 3.308; 95% CI: 1.530-7.151), neutrophils (OR: 1.078; 95% CI: 1.049-1.108), and alanine aminotransferase (OR: 1.002; 95% CI: 1.000-1.004) were identified as independent risk factors for IVIG non-responsiveness, and age (OR: 0.945; 95% CI: 0.902-0.989), C-reactive protein (OR: 1.092; 95% CI: 1.004-1.188), and creatinine kinase (OR: 1.004; 95% CI: 1.001-1.006) were identified as independent risk factors for coronary ectasia. Among previously published risk scoring systems, the Egami (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]: 0.695; 95% CI: 0.651-0.737) for IVIG non-responsiveness and the Tang score (AUC: 0.726; 95% CI: 0.578-0.874) for coronary ectasia showed the highest predictive value for our study cohort.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jung Min Park
- Department of Pediatrics, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Korea
| | - Jae Hee Seol
- Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Wonju, Korea
| | - Bongsic Yun
- Department of Pediatrics, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Korea
| | - Donghwa Yang
- Department of Pediatrics, Korea University Guro Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
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Tang Y, Liu Y, Du Z, Wang Z, Pan S. Prediction of coronary artery lesions in children with Kawasaki syndrome based on machine learning. BMC Pediatr 2024; 24:158. [PMID: 38443868 PMCID: PMC10916227 DOI: 10.1186/s12887-024-04608-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is an acute vasculitis that affects children < 5 years of age and leads to coronary artery lesions (CAL) in about 20-25% of untreated cases. Machine learning (ML) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) that integrates complex data sets on a large scale and uses huge data to predict future events. The purpose of the present study was to use ML to present the model for early risk assessment of CAL in children with KS by different algorithms. METHODS A total of 158 children were enrolled from Women and Children's Hospital, Qingdao University, and divided into 70-30% as the training sets and the test sets for modeling and validation studies. There are several classifiers are constructed for models including the random forest (RF), the logistic regression (LR), and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Data preprocessing is analyzed before applying the classifiers to modeling. To avoid the problem of overfitting, the 5-fold cross validation method was used throughout all the data. RESULTS The area under the curve (AUC) of the RF model was 0.925 according to the validation of the test set. The average accuracy was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.905 to 0.956). The AUC of the LG model was 0.888 and the average accuracy was 0.893 (95% CI, 0,837 to 0.950). The AUC of the XGBoost model was 0.879 and the average accuracy was 0.935 (95% CI, 0.891 to 0.980). CONCLUSION The RF algorithm was used in the present study to construct a prediction model for CAL effectively, with an accuracy of 0.930 and AUC of 0.925. The novel model established by ML may help guide clinicians in the initial decision to make a more aggressive initial anti-inflammatory therapy. Due to the limitations of external validation and regional population characteristics, additional research is required to initiate a further application in the clinic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaqi Tang
- Heart Center, Qingdao Women and Children's Hospital, Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
| | - Yuhai Liu
- Dawning International Information Industry Co., Ltd., No. 78 Zhuzhou Road, Laoshan District, Qingdao, China
- Sugon Nanjing Institute, Co., Ltd., No. 519 Chengxin Avenue, Fangyuan Road, Jiangning District, Nanjing, China
| | - Zhanhui Du
- Heart Center, Qingdao Women and Children's Hospital, Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
| | - Zheqi Wang
- School of Mathematics, Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Silin Pan
- Heart Center, Qingdao Women and Children's Hospital, Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.
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La Vecchia A, Stracquadaino R, Mauri L, Baselli LA, Abdallah R, Cucchetti M, Colli AM, Agostoni C, Dellepiane RM. Risk factors and scores for prediction of coronary artery aneurysms in Kawasaki disease: a European monocentric study. BMC Pediatr 2024; 24:139. [PMID: 38395821 PMCID: PMC10885636 DOI: 10.1186/s12887-024-04623-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Japanese Kawasaki disease (KD) risk scores cannot be adopted in non-Japanese patients. In North American populations a baseline coronary artery Z-score > 2 and the Son score are associated with coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) at 4 and 8 weeks from disease onset. In European populations, the Kawanet and Kawanet-echo scores are associated with intravenous immunoglobulin resistance. This study aims to evaluate the association between KD risk scores and baseline coronary artery Z-scores with CAAs at one, two, and six months in a European population. METHODS Historical cohort study of all the children diagnosed with KD in a tertiary care hospital in Milan, Italy, between 1st January 2015 and 31st May 2021. Univariate and multivariate (adjusting for age and corticosteroid therapy) logistic regression analyses were used to study the association between the risk scores, a baseline Z-score ≥ 2 and ≥ 2.5 with CAAs. RESULTS Eighty-nine patients were diagnosed with KD at our Centre, and 12 were excluded based on the exclusion criteria. We included 77 patients, 51 (66%) males, and 26 (34%) females, with a median age at presentation of 27 months (IQR 13-46). A baseline Z-score ≥ 2 was correlated with CAAs at one and two-month follow-ups (odds ratio (OR) 10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2-72, and OR 18, CI 3-357) but not at six-month follow-up. The Son score showed an association with one and two-month follow-up CAAs (OR 3, CI 1.3-7, and OR 3, CI 1.3-8) but not with a six-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Patients with a baseline Z-score ≥ 2 are at higher risk for CAAs in the long term. The Son score should be tested in larger European samples. Further studies should keep the observational periods longer than 8 weeks from KD onset.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adriano La Vecchia
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health (DISCCO), University of Milan, Milan, Italy
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milan-Bicocca, Monza, Italy
- Pediatric Area, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, via della Commenda 9, Milan, 20122, Italy
| | - Rita Stracquadaino
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health (DISCCO), University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Lucia Mauri
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health (DISCCO), University of Milan, Milan, Italy
- Department of Cardiology, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Lucia Augusta Baselli
- Pediatric Area, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, via della Commenda 9, Milan, 20122, Italy
| | - Rozan Abdallah
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health (DISCCO), University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Martina Cucchetti
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health (DISCCO), University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Anna Maria Colli
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health (DISCCO), University of Milan, Milan, Italy
- Department of Cardiology, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Carlo Agostoni
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health (DISCCO), University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
- Pediatric Area, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, via della Commenda 9, Milan, 20122, Italy.
| | - Rosa Maria Dellepiane
- Pediatric Area, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, via della Commenda 9, Milan, 20122, Italy
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Yang P, Zhang J, Liu Y, Feng S, Yi Q. Prediction of Coronary Artery Lesions in Patients With Recurrent Kawasaki Disease. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2024; 43:101-108. [PMID: 37922481 DOI: 10.1097/inf.0000000000004146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A subset of patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) will suffer recurrence. However, there is still a lack of accurate prediction models for coronary artery lesions (CAL) in recurrent KD patients. It is necessary to establish a new nomogram model for predicting CAL in patients with recurrent KD. METHODS Data from patients with recurrent KD between 2015 and 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. After splitting the patients into training and validation cohorts, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to select the predictors of CAL and multivariate logistic regression was used to construct a nomogram based on the selected predictors. The application of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score and decision curve analysis were used to assess the model performance. RESULTS A total of 159 recurrent KD patients were enrolled, 66 (41.5%) of whom had CAL. Hemoglobin levels, CAL at the first episode, and intravenous immunoglobulin resistance at recurrence were identified by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis as significant predictors. The model incorporating these predictors showed good discrimination (AUC, 0.777) and calibration capacities (Hosmer-Lemeshow P value, 0.418; Brier score, 0.190) in the training cohort. Application of the model to the validation cohort yielded an AUC of 0.741, a Hosmer-Lemeshow P value of 0.623 and a Brier score of 0.190. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram model was clinically useful. CONCLUSIONS The proposed nomogram model could help clinicians assess the risk of CAL in patients with recurrent KD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Penghui Yang
- From the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders
- National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders
- China International Science and Technology Cooperation Base of Child Development and Critical Disorders
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Jing Zhang
- From the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders
- National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders
- China International Science and Technology Cooperation Base of Child Development and Critical Disorders
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yihao Liu
- From the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders
- National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders
- China International Science and Technology Cooperation Base of Child Development and Critical Disorders
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Siqi Feng
- From the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders
- National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders
- China International Science and Technology Cooperation Base of Child Development and Critical Disorders
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Qijian Yi
- From the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders
- National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders
- China International Science and Technology Cooperation Base of Child Development and Critical Disorders
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
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Jiang S, Li M, Xu K, Xie Y, Liang P, Liu C, Su Q, Li B. Predictive factors of medium-giant coronary artery aneurysms in Kawasaki disease. Pediatr Res 2024; 95:267-274. [PMID: 37670043 PMCID: PMC10798897 DOI: 10.1038/s41390-023-02798-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2022] [Revised: 05/11/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 09/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to examine predictive measures for medium and giant coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) in Kawasaki disease (KD) patients. METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with KD from 2015 to 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. The clinical and laboratory data were compared between medium-giant group and non-medium-giant group. RESULTS A total of 1331 KD patients were investigated, of whom 63 patients (4.7%) developed medium-giant CAA including 27 patients (2%) with giant CAA. Sex, age, fever duration, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance, platelet count, and albumin level independently predicted medium or giant CAA by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Male, age, duration of fever, IVIG resistance, platelet count, hemoglobin, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate were independent predictors for giant CAA. The two new scoring systems using these factors in identifying patients with medium-giant CAA and giant CAA had respectively sensitivities of 86.89% and 92.59%, and specificities of 81.65% and 87.93%. Validation in 2021 dataset (193 KD patients) showed comparable sensitivity and specificity to development dataset. CONCLUSIONS Male, age, fever duration, IVIG resistance, platelet count, albumin, hemoglobin, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate might be significant predictors of medium and giant CAA. The sensitivity and specificity in our risk prediction model were higher than in previous research. IMPACT This is the first study to search for risk factors and establish a prediction model for the development of medium-giant CAA in the Chinese population using z-scores and absolute inner diameter values based on large sample sizes. The sensitivity and specificity in our model were higher than in previous studies. Our research could help clinicians better predict medium-giant CAA and choose more appropriate treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saitong Jiang
- Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China
- Department of Cardiology, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Meng Li
- Department of Cardiology, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Kun Xu
- Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China
- Department of Cardiology, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Ying Xie
- Department of Cardiology, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Piaohong Liang
- Department of Cardiology, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Cong Liu
- Department of Cardiology, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Qiru Su
- Institute of Pediatrics, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.
| | - Boning Li
- Department of Cardiology, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.
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李 燕, 袁 晨, 蔡 艾, 周 博, 黄 腾. [Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio as a biomarker for predicting coronary artery lesions in Chinese children with Kawasaki disease: a Meta analysis]. ZHONGGUO DANG DAI ER KE ZA ZHI = CHINESE JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY PEDIATRICS 2023; 25:1219-1226. [PMID: 38112138 PMCID: PMC10731965 DOI: 10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2306097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/12/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To systematically evaluate the value of the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in predicting coronary artery lesions (CAL) in Chinese children with Kawasaki Disease (KD). METHODS A comprehensive search was conducted in databases including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data, China Biomedical Literature Database, and China Science and Technology Journal Database from inception to December 2022. The quality of the included literature was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, and a Meta analysis was performed using Stata 15.1. RESULTS A total of ten published reports, involving 3 664 Chinese children with KD, were included in this Meta analysis, of whom 1 328 developed CAL. The Meta analysis revealed a sensitivity of 0.78 (95%CI: 0.71-0.83), specificity of 0.71 (95%CI: 0.61-0.80), overall diagnostic odds ratio of 8.69 (95%CI: 5.02-15.06), and an area under the curve of the summary receiver operating characteristic of 0.82 (95%CI: 0.78-0.85) for PLR in predicting CAL in the children with KD. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve of summary receiver operating characteristic were lower for PLR alone compared to PLR in combination with other indicators. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the stability of the Meta analysis results with no significant changes upon excluding individual studies. However, a significant publication bias was observed (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS PLR demonstrates certain predictive value for CAL in Chinese children with KD.
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Tang Y, Ding C, Xu Q, Zhou W, Qin Y, Lu M, Lv H. Prediction nomogram for coronary artery aneurysms at one month in Kawasaki disease. Ital J Pediatr 2023; 49:146. [PMID: 37932799 PMCID: PMC10629107 DOI: 10.1186/s13052-023-01551-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/19/2023] [Indexed: 11/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Coronary status at one month after Kawasaki disease (KD) onset had a great significance. The present study aimed to establish a prediction model for coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) at one month in children with KD. METHODS Patients with a diagnosis of KD between May 2017 and Dec 2018 were enrolled as the development cohort to build a prediction model. The model was validated by internal and external validation. Patients between Jan 2019 and Dec 2019 were enrolled as the validation cohort. The adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to select the possible predictors. Receiving operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The performance of the Son score was also assessed. RESULTS LASSO regression demonstrated that age, sex, and CALs in the acute stage were predictors for CAA at one month. The area under the ROC (AUC) was 0.946 (95% confidence interval: 0.911-0.980) with a sensitivity of 92.5% and a specificity of 90.5%. The calibration curve and the DCA showed a favorable diagnostic performance. The internal and external validation proved the reliability of the prediction model. The AUC of our model and the Son score were 0.941 and 0.860, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Our prediction model for CAA at one month after disease onset in KD had an excellent predictive utility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunjia Tang
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, No 92, Zhongnan Street, Suzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Chuxin Ding
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, No 92, Zhongnan Street, Suzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiuqin Xu
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, No 92, Zhongnan Street, Suzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Wanping Zhou
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, No 92, Zhongnan Street, Suzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Yiming Qin
- Department of Pediatrics, Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, No 6, Huanghe Road, Changshu, People's Republic of China
| | - Meihua Lu
- Department of Pediatrics, Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, No 6, Huanghe Road, Changshu, People's Republic of China.
| | - Haitao Lv
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, No 92, Zhongnan Street, Suzhou, People's Republic of China.
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Chen J, Li J, Yue Y, Liu Y, Xie T, Peng J, Deng Z, Cao Y. Nomogram for predicting coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease. Clin Cardiol 2023; 46:1434-1441. [PMID: 37540643 PMCID: PMC10642325 DOI: 10.1002/clc.24113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2023] [Revised: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/27/2023] [Indexed: 08/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Coronary artery lesions are the most important complications of Kawasaki disease. Approximately 25-30% of untreated patients develop coronary artery disease, which can lead to long-term cardiovascular sequelae. AIM The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk factors for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease and to construct a nomogram for predicting the likelihood of developing such lesions. METHODS Data from 599 patients between January 2012 and June 2020 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 450) and the validation set (n = 149). A comparison of clinical features and laboratory data was performed, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors and develop the nomogram. The predictive efficiency of the nomogram was evaluated using the calibration curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance, delayed IVIG treatment, C-reactive protein, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio were identified as independent risk factors for the development of coronary artery lesions. The nomogram was constructed based on these four variables. The calibration curve of the nomogram showed a high degree of agreement between the predicted probability and the actual probability. The AUC of the nomogram in the training and validation set was 0.790 and 0.711, respectively. In addition, DCA revealed that the nomogram provided a significant net benefit, further supporting its clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS The constructed nomogram demonstrates a strong and reliable performance in predicting coronary artery lesions, which enables clinicians to make timely and tailored clinical decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Chen
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Hunan Provincial People's HospitalThe First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal UniversityChangshaChina
| | - Jing Li
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Hunan Provincial People's HospitalThe First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal UniversityChangshaChina
| | - Yang‐hua Yue
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Hunan Provincial People's HospitalThe First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal UniversityChangshaChina
| | - Yu Liu
- Department of Infectious DiseasesYouxian People's HospitalZhuzhouChina
| | - Tian Xie
- Department of Pediatrics, Hunan Provincial People's HospitalThe First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal UniversityChangshaChina
| | - Jian‐qiao Peng
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Hunan Provincial People's HospitalThe First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal UniversityChangshaChina
| | - Zhong‐hua Deng
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Hunan Provincial People's HospitalThe First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal UniversityChangshaChina
| | - You‐de Cao
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Hunan Provincial People's HospitalThe First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal UniversityChangshaChina
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Iio K, Hanna H, Beykou M, Gale C, Herberg JA. Role of procalcitonin in predicting complications of Kawasaki disease. Arch Dis Child 2023; 108:862-864. [PMID: 37524408 DOI: 10.1136/archdischild-2023-325787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 08/02/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Kazuki Iio
- Applied Paediatrics MSc course, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Tokyo Metropolitan Children's Medical Center, Fuchu, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Heather Hanna
- Section of Paediatric Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Melina Beykou
- Circuits and Systems Group, Centre of Bio-Inspired Technology, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Dynamical Cell Systems Group, Division of Cancer Biology, Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK
- Cancer Research UK Convergence Science Centre, London, UK
| | - Chris Gale
- Neonatal Medicine, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jethro Adam Herberg
- Section of Paediatric Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Farias JS, Villarreal EG, Savorgnan F, Acosta S, Flores S, Loomba RS. The use of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease. Cardiol Young 2023; 33:1409-1417. [PMID: 37012661 DOI: 10.1017/s1047951123000653] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Kawasaki disease is a vasculitis that can lead to cardiac complications, including coronary artery disease and cardiogenic shock. Various scoring systems have been developed to determine those that will be refractory to routine intravenous immunoglobulin therapy or develop coronary artery disease. The objective of this study was to determine if the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio could predict refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease. METHODS A systematic review of the literature was performed to identify manuscripts describing comparisons of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio between those who had refractory disease and those who did not, and between those who developed coronary artery lesions and those who did not. Mean difference was compared between groups. Areas under the curve were utilised to determine the pooled area under the curve. RESULTS 12 studies with 5593 patients were included in the final analyses of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of refractory disease. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio before therapy was higher in refractory disease with a mean difference of 2.55 (p < 0.01) and pooled area under the curve of 0.724. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio after therapy was higher in refractory disease with a mean difference of 1.42 (p < 0.01) and pooled area under the curve for of 0.803. Five studies with 1690 patients were included in the final analyses of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of coronary artery lesions. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio before therapy was higher in coronary artery lesions with a mean difference of 0.65 (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION The use of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio may help physicians in the identification of patients at risk of refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan S Farias
- Tecnologico de Monterrey, Escuela de Medicina y Ciencias de la Salud, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico
| | - Enrique G Villarreal
- Tecnologico de Monterrey, Escuela de Medicina y Ciencias de la Salud, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico
| | - Fabio Savorgnan
- Section of Critical Care Medicine and Cardiology, Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Sebastian Acosta
- Section of Critical Care Medicine and Cardiology, Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Saul Flores
- Section of Critical Care Medicine and Cardiology, Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Rohit S Loomba
- Division of Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care, Advocate Children's Hospital, Oak Lawn, IL, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Chicago Medical School/Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine and Science, Chicago, IL, USA
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Chiang WN, Huang PY, Kuo HC, Huang YH, Chang LS. Evaluation of Formosa score and diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a bivariate meta-analysis. Front Cardiovasc Med 2023; 10:1164530. [PMID: 37378410 PMCID: PMC10291052 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2023.1164530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 05/25/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Background In 2016, Lin et al. developed a prediction score of non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) (Lin et al., 2016). Various studies have attempted to validate the Formosa score, but inconsistent results have given us new opportunities and challenges. The aim of this meta-analysis is to explore the role of the Formosa score as a risk score in detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients and then compare the pooled sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano risk scores. Methods A comprehensive search of Cochrane, Embase, and PubMed was conducted through 20 December 2021, using key terms relevant to the research question "What are the sensitivities and specificities of the four Asian predicting scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano, in Kawasaki disease patients with IVIG resistance?" The reference lists of the included studies were manually reviewed to identify pertinent references. A random-effects bivariate model was used to estimate the summary of sensitivity and specificity of the tools. Results We found 41 relevant studies of the four Asian risk scores that were eligible to analyze for pooled accuracy. Eleven studies involving 5,169 KD patients reported the diagnostic performance of the Formosa score for the risk of IVIG resistance. The overall performance of the Formosa score was as follows: pooled sensitivity, 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.48-0.70]; pooled specificity, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.50-0.68); and area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.62. The Formosa score exhibited the highest sensitivity 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) for detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients among the 21,389 children included in the 41 studies. In terms of specificity estimates, Formosa had the lowest specificity of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.41-0.51). Conclusion Patients at high risk for IVIG resistance may receive adjunctive treatment to reduce coronary lesions and thus also cardiovascular morbidity. Among all of the included studies, we found Formosa score to have the best sensitivity (0.76) but unsatisfactory specificity (0.46) for predicting IVIG resistance in Kawasaki disease. In the future, network meta-analysis should also incorporate the accuracy of the new scores after they have undergone a certain degree of validation around the world. Systematic Review Registration https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, PROSPERO CRD42022341410.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wan-Ni Chiang
- Division of Chinese Internal Medicine, Center for Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Po-Yu Huang
- Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Ho-Chang Kuo
- Department of Pediatrics, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Ying-Hsien Huang
- Department of Pediatrics, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Ling-Sai Chang
- Department of Pediatrics, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
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Li Y, Xu Z, Wu L, Liang X, Zhao L, Liu F, Wang F. Tenascin-C predicts IVIG non-responsiveness and coronary artery lesions in kawasaki disease in a Chinese cohort. Front Pediatr 2022; 10:979026. [PMID: 36582508 PMCID: PMC9792982 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2022.979026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess the predictive value of tenascin-C (TN-C) for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) non-responsiveness and coronary artery lesions (CALs) development at the acute stage of Kawasaki disease, and to build novel scoring systems for identifying IVIG non-responsiveness and CALs. METHODS A total of 261 patients in acute-stage Kawasaki disease were included. Serum samples before IVIG initiation were collected and TN-C expression levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In addition to TN-C, another fifteen clinical and laboratory parameters collected before treatment were compared between IVIG responsive and non-responsive groups, and between groups with and without CALs. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to construct new scoring systems for the prediction of IVIG non-responsiveness and CALs development. RESULTS IVIG non-responsive group (n = 51) had significantly higher TN-C level compared to IVIG responsive group (n = 210) (15.44 vs. 12.38 IU/L, P < 0.001). A novel scoring system composed of TN-C, total bilirubin, serum sodium and albumin was established to predict IVIG non-responsiveness. Patients with a total score ≥ 2 points were classified as high-risk cases. With the sensitivity of 78.4% and specificity of 73.8%, the efficiency of our scoring system for predicting IVIG non-responsiveness was comparable to the Kobayashi system. Consistently, the group developing CALs at the acute stage (n = 42) had significantly higher TN-C level compared to the group without CALs (n = 219) (19.76 vs. 12.10 IU/L, P < 0.001). A new scoring system showed that patients with elevated TN-C, platelet count ≥ 450 × 109/L, and delayed initial infusion of IVIG had a higher risk of developing CALs. Individuals with a total score ≥ 3 points were classified as high-risk cases. The sensitivity and specificity of the novel simple system for predicting CALs development were 83.3% and 74.0%, respectively, yielding a better efficiency than the Harada score. CONCLUSION Elevated TN-C appeared to be an independent risk factor for both IVIG non-responsiveness and CALs in Chinese children with KD. Our scoring systems containing TN-C is simple and efficient in the early identification of high-risk KD cases that could benefit from more individualized medications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujie Li
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ziqing Xu
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Lin Wu
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xuecun Liang
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Lu Zhao
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Fang Liu
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Feng Wang
- Department of Cardiology, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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