Published online Nov 24, 2020. doi: 10.5306/wjco.v11.i11.918
Peer-review started: June 24, 2020
First decision: September 18, 2020
Revised: October 6, 2020
Accepted: October 20, 2020
Article in press: October 20, 2020
Published online: November 24, 2020
Processing time: 147 Days and 10.3 Hours
Oral cancer is the sixth most prevalent cancer worldwide. Public knowledge in oral cancer risk factors and survival is limited.
To come up with machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the length of survival for individuals diagnosed with oral cancer, and to explore the most important factors that were responsible for shortening or lengthening oral cancer survival.
We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from the years 1975 to 2016 that consisted of a total of 257880 cases and 94 variables. Four ML techniques in the area of artificial intelligence were applied for model training and validation. Model accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), R2 and adjusted R2.
The most important factors predictive of oral cancer survival time were age at diagnosis, primary cancer site, tumor size and year of diagnosis. Year of diagnosis referred to the year when the tumor was first diagnosed, implying that individuals with tumors that were diagnosed in the modern era tend to have longer survival than those diagnosed in the past. The extreme gradient boosting ML algorithms showed the best performance, with the MAE equaled to 13.55, MSE 486.55 and RMSE 22.06.
Using artificial intelligence, we developed a tool that can be used for oral cancer survival prediction and for medical-decision making. The finding relating to the year of diagnosis represented an important new discovery in the literature. The results of this study have implications for cancer prevention and education for the public.
Core Tip: Oral cancer is the sixth most prevalent cancer worldwide. The goal of this study was to come up with machine learning algorithms to predict the length of oral cancer survival and to explore the most important factors that were responsible for it. Age at diagnosis, primary cancer site, tumor size and year of diagnosis were found to be the most important factors predictive of oral cancer survival. Year of diagnosis represents an important new discovery in the literature. Using artificial intelligence, we developed a tool that can be used for oral cancer survival prediction and for medical decision making.