Published online Jun 28, 2024. doi: 10.4329/wjr.v16.i6.203
Revised: May 13, 2024
Accepted: May 28, 2024
Published online: June 28, 2024
Processing time: 108 Days and 20.5 Hours
Development of distant metastasis (DM) is a major concern during treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, studies have demonstrated im
To develop a predictive model for metastasis in NPC using detailed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reports.
This retrospective study included 792 patients with non-distant metastatic NPC. A total of 469 imaging variables were obtained from detailed MRI reports. Data were stratified and randomly split into training (50%) and testing sets. Gradient boosting tree (GBT) models were built and used to select variables for predicting DM. A full model comprising all variables and a reduced model with the top-five variables were built. Model performance was assessed by area under the curve (AUC).
Among the 792 patients, 94 developed DM during follow-up. The number of metastatic cervical nodes (30.9%), tumor invasion in the posterior half of the nasal cavity (9.7%), two sides of the pharyngeal recess (6.2%), tubal torus (3.3%), and single side of the parapharyngeal space (2.7%) were the top-five contributors for predicting DM, based on their relative importance in GBT models. The testing AUC of the full model was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-0.82). The testing AUC of the reduced model was 0.75 (95%CI: 0.68-0.82). For the whole dataset, the full (AUC = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.72-0.82) and reduced models (AUC = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.71-0.81) outperformed the tumor node-staging system (AUC = 0.67, 95%CI: 0.61-0.73).
The GBT model outperformed the tumor node-staging system in predicting metastasis in NPC. The number of metastatic cervical nodes was identified as the principal contributing variable.
Core Tip: A total of 469 imaging variables obtained from detailed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reports of 792 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) with non-distant metastasis were evaluated in this retrospective study. Data were stratified and randomly split into training (50%) and testing (50%) sets. Gradient boosting tree (GBT) models were built based on the training set and used to select imaging variables to predict distant metastasis. The number of metastatic cervical nodes was the top contributor for predicting distant metastasis based on the relative importance in GBT models. The GBT model outperformed the tumor node-staging system in predicting metastasis in NPC.