Prognostic prediction model of colorectal cancer based on preoperative serum tumor markers

doi:10.4240/wjgs.v16.i5.1344

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May 27, 2024 (publication date) through Jun 26, 2024

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World Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery

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1948-9366

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Baishideng Publishing Group Inc, 7041 Koll Center Parkway, Suite 160, Pleasanton, CA 94566, USA

Retrospective Study

World J Gastrointest Surg. May 27, 2024; 16(5): 1344-1353
Published online May 27, 2024. doi: 10.4240/wjgs.v16.i5.1344

Table 1 Baseline information between the development and validation cohorts, n (%)

Characteristics	Development (2473)	Validation (1056)	P value
Age, yr	63.1 ± 12.0	61.7 ± 12.3	0.002^a
Sex			0.930
Male	1448 (58.4)	620 (59.1)
Female	1025 (41.6)	436 (40.9)
BMI, kg/m²	22.6 ± 3.2	22.8 ± 3.2	0.180
Smoking	942 (37.0)	395 (37.9)	0.700
Drinking	767 (30.8)	310 (29.8)	0.327
Hypertension	649 (25.1)	257 (25.4)	0.235
T2DM	311 (11.5)	123 (11.5)	0.442
CHD	98 (4.3)	52 (4.8)	0.195
Tumor location			0.217
Colon	1166 (47.3)	582 (46.9)
Rectum	1307 (52.7)	474 (53.1)
TNM stage			0.802
I	490 (18.9)	215 (18.4)
II	1067 (39.9)	443 (40.4)
III	916 (35.6)	398 (36.6)
Tumor size			0.705
< 5 cm	1442 (60.1)	623 (60.9)
≥ 5 cm	1031 (39.9)	433 (39.1)
CEA			0.053
Normal	1562 (63.2)	703 (66.6)
Abnormal	911 (36.8)	353 (33.4)
CA199			0.823
Normal	1973 (79.8)	839 (79.5)
Abnormal	500 (20.2)	217 (20.5)
AFP			0.105
Normal	2366 (95.7)	997 (94.4)
Abnormal	107 (4.3)	59 (5.6)
Surgical time, min	224.5 ± 78.3	224.6 ± 78.3	0.967

^aP < 0.05.

T2DM: Type 2 diabetes mellitus; BMI: Body mass index; CHD: Chronic heart disease; TNM: Tumor node metastasis; AFP: Alpha fetoprotein; CEA: Carcinoembryonic antigen; CA199: Carbohydrate antigen 19-9.

Table 2 Univariate and multivariate analysis of overall survival

Risk factors	Univariate analysis		Multivariate analysis
Risk factors	HR (95%CI)	P value	HR (95%CI)	P value
Age (yr)	1.045 (1.037-1.055)	< 0.01^a	1.042 (1.033-1.051)	< 0.01^a
Sex (male/female)	0.931 (0.770-1.126)	0.461
BMI (kg/m²)	0.952 (0.924-0.981)	0.001^a	0.980 (0.952-1.008)	0.161
T2DM (yes/no)	1.231 (0.938-1.617)	0.134
Tumor location (colon/ rectum)	1.179 (0.979-1.421)	0.083
Tumor stage (III/II/I)	2.105 (1.817-2.438)	< 0.01^a	1.938 (1.665-2.255)	< 0.01^a
Smoking (yes/no)	0.964 (0.795-1.168)	0.706
Drinking (yes/no)	0.884 (0.718-1.089)	0.248
Hypertension (yes/no)	0.926 (0.743-1.154)	0.493
Tumor size (≥ 5 cm/< 5 cm)	1.426 (1.184-1.718)	< 0.01^a	1.117 (0.923-1.351)	0.255
CEA (abnormal/normal)	2.185 (1.812-2.633)	< 0.01^a	1.393 (1.137-1.707)	0.001^a
AFP (abnormal/normal)	1.108 (0.715-1.718)	0.645
CA-199 (abnormal/normal)	2.646 (2.185-3.204)	< 0.01^a	1.984 (1.614-2.438)	< 0.01^a
Surgical time, min	1.001 (1.000-1.002)	0.069

^aP < 0.05.

BMI: Body mass index; T2DM: Type 2 diabetes mellitus; AFP: Alpha fetoprotein; CEA: Carcinoembryonic antigen; CA199: Carbohydrate antigen 19-9.

Citation: Diao YH, Rao SQ, Shu XP, Cheng Y, Tan C, Wang LJ, Peng D. Prognostic prediction model of colorectal cancer based on preoperative serum tumor markers. World J Gastrointest Surg 2024; 16(5): 1344-1353
URL: https://www.wjgnet.com/1948-9366/full/v16/i5/1344.htm
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.4240/wjgs.v16.i5.1344