Published online May 27, 2023. doi: 10.4240/wjgs.v15.i5.892
Peer-review started: December 3, 2022
First decision: February 1, 2023
Revised: February 27, 2023
Accepted: March 27, 2023
Article in press: March 27, 2023
Published online: May 27, 2023
Processing time: 174 Days and 6.7 Hours
Colorectal surgery is associated with a decreased probability of survival in elderly cancer patients. Several factors can affect the postoperative survival of elderly colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.
A precise predictive tool is required to enhance the decision-making process for elderly CRC patients undergoing colorectal resection.
To construct and validate a nomogram to predict the overall survival of elderly CRC patients over 80 years undergoing colorectal surgery.
This retrospective study included 295 elderly CRC patients over 80 years undergoing colorectal resection. Variables were selected using regression methods, and a nomogram for 1- and 3-year overall survival was constructed from 60% of the cohort and validated on the remaining 40%. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using various metrics, and the risk group was stratified based on the risk points of the nomogram.
The nomogram, which comprised age, comorbidities, body mass index, serum albumin level, distant metastasis, emergency surgery, postoperative pneumonia, and postoperative myocardial infarction, demonstrated excellent discriminative ability and consistency between predictions and actual observations. The risk group was stratified based on the nomogram's risk points, and a significant difference in overall survival was observed between low- and high-risk groups.
This novel nomogram provides a valuable tool for informed decision-making in elderly CRC patients undergoing colorectal resection.
We developed a nomogram using demographic and clinical variables to estimate the survival of elderly CRC patients undergoing colorectal surgery. This nomogram may guide treatment decisions, facilitate patient counseling, and enhance surgical outcomes.