Chaib E, Jr MAFR, Santos VR, Jr RFM, D’Albuquerque LAC, Massad E. A mathematical model for shortening waiting time in pancreas-kidney transplantation. World J Gastrointest Surg 2011; 3(8): 119-122 [PMID: 22007279 DOI: 10.4240/wjgs.v3.i8.119]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Eleazar Chaib, MD, FRCS, Professor, Liver and Pancreas Transplantation Surgery Unit, LIM 37 and LIM 01, Department of Gastroenterology, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine, Av Dr Eneas de Carvalho Aguiar 255, Level 9, 05403-010, Sao Paulo, Brazil. eleazarchaib@yahoo.co.uk
Article-Type of This Article
Brief Article
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World J Gastrointest Surg. Aug 27, 2011; 3(8): 119-122 Published online Aug 27, 2011. doi: 10.4240/wjgs.v3.i8.119
A mathematical model for shortening waiting time in pancreas-kidney transplantation
Eleazar Chaib, Marcelo Augusto F Ribeiro Jr, Vinicius Rocha Santos, Roberto Ferreira Meirelles Jr, Luiz Augusto Carneiro D’Albuquerque, Eduardo Massad
Eleazar Chaib, Marcelo Augusto F Ribeiro Jr, Vinicius Rocha Santos, Roberto Ferreira Meirelles Jr, Luiz Augusto Carneiro D’Albuquerque, Eduardo Massad, Liver and Pancreas Transplantation Surgery Unit, LIM 37 and LIM 01, Department of Gastroenterology, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine, Av Dr Eneas de Carvalho Aguiar 255, Level 9, 05403-010, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Author contributions: Chaib E designed the article, collected the data and wrote the paper; Ribeiro Jr MAF, Santos VR and Meirelles Jr RF collected the data; D’Albuquerque LAC and Massad E designed the model and wrote the paper.
Supported by LIMs 01 and 37-HCFMUSP, CNPq and FAPESP
Correspondence to: Eleazar Chaib, MD, FRCS, Professor, Liver and Pancreas Transplantation Surgery Unit, LIM 37 and LIM 01, Department of Gastroenterology, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine, Av Dr Eneas de Carvalho Aguiar 255, Level 9, 05403-010, Sao Paulo, Brazil. eleazarchaib@yahoo.co.uk
Telephone: +55-11-30618322 Fax: +55-11-30617270
Received: April 8, 2011 Revised: May 26, 2011 Accepted: June 5, 2011 Published online: August 27, 2011
Abstract
AIM: To simulate a hypothetical increase of 50% in the number of pancreas-kidney (PK) transplantations using less-than-ideal donors by a mathematical model.
METHODS: We projected the size of the waiting list by taking into account the incidence of new patients per year, the number of PK transplantations carried out in the year and the number of patients who died on the waiting list or were removed from the list for other reasons. These variables were treated using a model developed elsewhere.
RESULTS: We found that the waiting list demand will meet the number of PK transplantation by the year 2022.
CONCLUSION: In future years, it is perfectly possible to minimize the waiting list time for pancreas transplantation through expansion of the donor pool using less-than-ideal donors.
