Haghighatdoost F, Amini M, Feizi A, Iraj B. Are body mass index and waist circumference significant predictors of diabetes and prediabetes risk: Results from a population based cohort study. World J Diabetes 2017; 8(7): 365-373 [PMID: 28751960 DOI: 10.4239/wjd.v8.i7.365]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Dr. Awat Feizi, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 319, Hezar-Jerib Ave., Isfahan 81746-73461, Iran. awat_feiz@hlth.mui.ac.ir
Research Domain of This Article
Endocrinology & Metabolism
Article-Type of This Article
Prospective Study
Open-Access Policy of This Article
This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Fahimeh Haghighatdoost, Food Security Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan 81746-73461, Iran
Fahimeh Haghighatdoost, Department of Community Nutrition, School of Nutrition and Food Science, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan 81746-73461, Iran
Masoud Amini, Awat Feizi, Bijan Iraj, Isfahan Endocrine and Metabolism Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan 81746-73461, Iran
Awat Feizi, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan 81746-73461, Iran
Author contributions: Amini M and Iraj B contributed in the conception, design and conducting the study; Feizi A conception, analyzed data and interpreted results; Haghighatdoost F interpreted results and drafted the manuscript; all authors approved the final version of manuscript.
Institutional review board statement: This study was conducted at Isfahan Endocrine and Methabolism Research Center and approved by ethics committee of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences.
Informed consent statement: All involved subjects gave their informed written consent prior to study inclusion.
Conflict-of-interest statement: None.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Correspondence to: Dr. Awat Feizi, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 319, Hezar-Jerib Ave., Isfahan 81746-73461, Iran. awat_feiz@hlth.mui.ac.ir
Telephone: +98-313-7923250 Fax: +98-313-7923232
Received: October 23, 2016 Peer-review started: October 28, 2016 First decision: January 20, 2017 Revised: May 13, 2017 Accepted: May 13, 2017 Article in press: June 8, 2017 Published online: July 15, 2017 Processing time: 252 Days and 12.4 Hours
Abstract
AIM
To determine the predictive role of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) for diabetes and prediabetes risk in future in total sample as well as in men and women separately.
METHODS
In a population based cohort study, 1765 with mean ± SD age: 42.32 ± 6.18 healthy participants were followed up from 2003 till 2013 (n = 960). Anthropometric and biochemical measures of participants were evaluated regularly during the follow up period. BMI and WC measures at baseline and diabetes and prediabetes status of participants at 2013 were determined. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used for determining the risk of diabetes and prediabetes considering important potential confounding variables. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was conducted to determine the best cut of values of BMI and WC for diabetes and prediabetes.
RESULTS
At 2013, among participants who had complete data, 45 and 307 people were diabetic and prediabetic, respectively. In final fully adjusted model, BMI value was a significant predictor of diabetes (RR = 1.39, 95%CI: 1.06-1.82 and AUC = 0.68, 95%CI: 0.59-0.75; P < 0.001) however not a significant risk factor for prediabetes. Also, WC was a significant predictor for diabetes (RR = 1.2, 95%CI: 1.05-1.38 and AUC = 0.67, 95%CI: 0.6-0.75) but not significant risk factor for prediabetes. Similar results were observed in both genders.
CONCLUSION
General and abdominal obesity are significant risk factors for diabetes in future.
Core tip: The predictive powers of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were similar in predicting the incidence risk of diabetes in either gender. The cut-off points for predicting diabetes in men and women were different. Defined cut-off points based on maximum sensitivity plus specificity values suggested that in men, BMI of 26.2 kg/m2 and WC of 89.7 cm, and in women, BMI of 28.6 kg/m2 and WC of 84.3 cm would predict Isfahanian population at high risk for developing diabetes.
