Development of a nomogram for overall survival in patients with esophageal carcinoma: A prospective cohort study in China

Table 1 Patient demographics and clinical characteristics

Characteristics	Overall (n = 3127)	Training cohort (n = 2189)	Validation cohort (n = 938)	P value
Age1	65.30 ± 8.59	65.35 ± 8.65	65.19 ± 8.46	0.620
KPS1	83.75 ± 8.11	83.74 ± 7.97	83.78 ± 8.43	0.910
Sex, n (%)
Male	2549 (81.52)	1789 (81.73)	760 (81.02)	0.679
Female	578 (18.48)	400 (18.27)	178 (18.98)
BMI, n (%)
18.5-23.9	1931 (61.75)	1350 (61.67)	581 (61.94)	0.357
≥ 24	720 (23.03)	494 (22.57)	226 (24.09)
< 18.5	476 (15.22)	345 (15.76)	131 (13.97)
Base disease, n (%)
No	2521 (80.62)	1757 (80.26)	764 (81.45)	0.472
Yes	606 (19.38)	432 (19.74)	174 (18.55)
Pathological, n (%)
SCC	3021 (96.61)	2121 (96.89)	900 (95.95)	0.219
Others	106 (3.39)	68 (3.11)	38 (4.05)
TNM, n (%)
I	226 (7.23)	162 (7.40)	64 (6.82)	0.703
II	780 (24.94)	536 (24.49)	244 (26.01)
III	1230 (39.33)	858 (39.20)	372 (39.66)
IV	891 (28.49)	633 (28.92)	258 (27.51)
Radiotherapy, n (%)
No	1918 (61.34)	1345 (61.44)	573 (61.09)	0.883
Yes	1209 (38.66)	844 (38.56)	365 (38.91)
Chemotherapy, n (%)
No	1804 (57.69)	1265 (57.79)	539 (57.46)	0.897
Yes	1323 (42.31)	924 (42.21)	399 (42.54)
Surgery, n (%)
No	1644 (52.57)	1156 (52.81)	488 (52.03)	0.716
Yes	1483 (47.43)	1033 (47.19)	450 (47.97)
Immunotherapy, n (%)
No	2901 (92.77)	2029 (92.69)	872 (92.96)	0.846
Yes	226 (7.23)	160 (7.31)	66 (7.04)
Targeted, n (%)
No	3019 (96.55)	2117 (96.71)	902 (96.16)	0.507
Yes	108 (3.45)	72 (3.29)	36 (3.84)
LDH1	202.19 ± 155.15	202.47 ± 143.90	201.53 ± 178.76	0.877
β2. Microglobulin1	2.59 ± 1.19	2.58 ± 1.15	2.61 ± 1.28	0.472
CD4/CD81	1.81 ± 1.06	1.80 ± 1.05	1.85 ± 1.09	0.163
ALB/GLB1	1.37 ± 0.32	1.37 ± 0.31	1.38 ± 0.32	0.707
PLR1	168.66 ± 113.61	168.01 ± 111.13	170.17 ± 119.24	0.625
LMR2	3.33 [2.36, 4.65]	3.32 [2.36, 4.61]	3.37 [2.41, 4.79]	0.147
NLR2	2.74 [1.94, 4.09]	2.74 [1.92, 4.12]	2.74 [1.97, 4.02]	0.714

¹Expressed as mean ± SD.

²Expressed as median[P25, P75].

PLR: Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio; BMI: Body mass index; KPS: Karnofsky performance status; LDH: Lactic dehydrogenase; SCC: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; LMR: Lymphocyte-monocyte ratio; NLR: Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio.

Table 2 Univariate and multivariate analysis for overall survival of the training cohort

Characteristics	HR (univariable)	HR (multivariable)
Age	1.02 (1.01-1.02, P < 0.001)
KPS	0.95 (0.94-0.95, P < 0.001)	0.98 (0.97-0.99, P < 0.001)
Gender (%)
Male
Female	0.85 (0.74-0.99, P = 0.033)
BMI (%)
18.5-23.9
≥ 24	0.76 (0.66-0.88, P < 0.001)	0.94 (0.82-1.09, P = 0.428)
< 18.5	1.68 (1.45-1.94, P < 0.001)	1.29 (1.11-1.49, P = 0.001)
Base disease (%)
No
Yes	1.04 (0.91-1.20, P = 0.578)
Pathological (%)
SCC
Others	1.41 (1.03-1.92, P = 0.032)
TNM (%)
I
II	2.10 (1.52-2.90, P < 0.001)	2.16 (1.56-2.98, P < 0.001)
III	3.13 (2.29-4.28, P < 0.001)	3.04 (2.22-4.18, P < 0.001)
IV	5.51 (4.03-7.54, P < 0.001)	4.12 (2.98-5.70, P < 0.001)
Radiotherapy (%)
No
Yes	0.74 (0.66-0.83, P < 0.001)	0.72 (0.64-0.81, P < 0.001)
Chemotherapy (%)
No
Yes	0.72 (0.64-0.81, P < 0.001)	0.74 (0.65-0.84, P < 0.001)
Surgery (%)
No
Yes	0.41 (0.37-0.46, P < 0.001)	0.56 (0.49-0.64, P< 0.001)
Immunotherapy (%)
No
Yes	0.54 (0.41-0.72, P < 0.001)	0.73 (0.54-0.98, P = 0.033)
Targeted (%)
No
Yes	0.78 (0.57-1.07, P = 0.120)
LDH	1.01 (1.00-1.01, P = 0.057)
β2. microglobulin	1.14 (1.09-1.19, P < 0.001)
CD4/CD8	0.93 (0.88-0.99, P = 0.018)
ALB/GLB	0.43 (0.35-0.52, P < 0.001)	0.81 (0.67-0.98, P = 0.034)
PLR	1.01 (1.01-1.01, P < 0.001)	1.01 (1.01-1.01, P < 0.001)
LMR	0.99 (0.99-1.00, P = 0.120)
NLR	1.06 (1.05-1.07, P < 0.001)

PLR: Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio; BMI: Body mass index; KPS: Karnofsky performance status; LDH: Lactic dehydrogenase; SCC: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; LMR: Lymphocyte-monocyte ratio; NLR: Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio.