Machine learning for modeling and identifying risk factors of pancreatic fistula

Figure 1 Receiver operating characteristic curve. A and B: Binary model of pancreatic fistula (A: Model, based on the pre- and intraoperative data; B: Model, developed with additional 3-5 postoperative days data). The model was developed with the CatBoost algorithm. We considered two classes: No fistula and patients with biochemical leak or fistula B and C; C-F: Three-dimensional model of pancreatic fistula. The model was developed with the CatBoost algorithm. We considered three classes: No fistula, patients with biochemical leak, and fistula B/C [C: Prediction of fistula B/C, considering biochemical leak as no fistula, based on pre- and intraoperative data; D: Prediction of fistula B/C in patients with increased amylase drain level according to the International Group of Studying Pancreatic Fistula (IGSPF) criteria, based on pre- and intraoperative data; E: Prediction of fistula B/C, considering biochemical leak as no fistula at 3-5 postoperative days; F: Prediction of fistula B/C in patients with increased amylase drain level according to the IGSPF criteria at 3-5 postoperative days]. The plot presents the quality of the model receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve. The area under the ROC curve is the quality metric, presented in values (0, 1). ROC curve is a function. True positive rates are shown along the ordinate and false positive rates - along the abscissa. False positive rates received in 5-fold cross-validation. True positive rates received from the initial dataset. ROC: Receiver operating characteristic.

Figure 2 Feature importance. A: Binary pre- and intraoperative model of pancreatic fistula; B: Binary postoperative model of pancreatic fistula; C: Three-dimensional pre- and intraoperative model of pancreatic fistula; D: Three-dimensional postoperative model of pancreatic fistula. Importances of the parameters (%), are presented at the abscissa. The features are ranked by importance. Im: Importance; BMI: Body mass index.