Risk factors for the development of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis in patients with asymptomatic common bile duct stones

Table 1 The characteristics of 168 asymptomatic patients

Characteristics	n (%)
Age [mean (SD)], yr	72.6 (11.2)
Sex, female	77 (45.8)
Billroth I reconstruction	9 (5.4)
Non-dilated CBD (< 10 mm)	99 (58.9)
Pharmacological prevention	82 (48.8)
Protease inhibitor	67 (39.9)
Rectal NSAIDs	15 (8.9)
Trainee endoscopist	39 (23.2)
Pancreatic injections	88 (52.4)
PGW-assisted cannulation	33 (19.6)
Precut sphincterotomy	15 (8.9)
Cannulation time > 10 min	64 (38.1)
Unsuccessful cannulation	4 (2.4)
EST	146 (86.9)
EPBD	14 (8.3)
EPLBD	4 (2.4)
Prophylactic pancreatic stent	27 (16.1)
Procedure time [mean (SD)], min	31.1 (16.4)

CBD: Common bile duct; NSAIDs: Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; PGW: Pancreatic guide wire; EST: Endoscopic sphincterotomy; EPBD: Endoscopic papillary balloon dilation; EPLBD: Endoscopic papillary large balloon dilation.

Table 2 Univariate analyses of risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis development in patients with asymptomatic common bile duct stones, n (%)

	Without post-ERCP pancreatitis (n = 144)	With post-ERCP pancreatitis (n = 24)	P value
Significant risk factors
Precut sphincterotomy	9 (6.3)	6 (25.0)	0.009
Biliary balloon sphincter dilation	10 (6.9)	5 (20.8)	0.043
Not significant risk factors
Procedure time ≥ 30 min	66 (45.8)	16 (66.7)	0.059
Trainee endoscopist	30 (20.8)	9 (37.5)	0.073
Cannulation time > 10 min	51 (35.4)	13 (54.2)	0.080
Administration of a protease inhibitor	54 (37.5)	13 (54.2)	0.12
Rectal NSAIDs	15 (10.4)	0 (0)	0.13
Female sex	63 (43.8)	14 (58.3)	0.18
PGW-assist cannulation	26 (18.1)	7 (29.2)	0.26
Pancreatic injections	73 (50.7)	15 (62.5)	0.28
Endoscopic sphincterotomy	127 (88.2)	19 (79.2)	0.32
Age [mean (SD)], yr	72.3 (10.8)	74.7 (13.0)	0.33
Absence of pancreatic stent	122 (84.7)	19 (79.2)	0.55
Non-dilated CBD (<10 mm)	86 (59.7)	13 (54.2)	0.61
Unsuccessful cannulation	4 (2.8)	0 (0)	1.0

ERCP: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography; NSAIDs: Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; PGW: Pancreatic guide wire; CBD: Common bile duct.

Table 3 Multivariate analysis of risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis development in patients with asymptomatic common bile duct stones

	P value	95%CI	Odds ratio
Precut sphincterotomy	0.002	2.2-27.8	7.7
Biliary balloon sphincter dilation	0.015	1.4-17.3	4.9
Trainee endoscopist	0.048	1.01-8.1	2.9
Procedure time ≥ 30 min	0.55	0.45-4.5
Cannulation time > 10 min	0.57	0.46-4.1