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Ma Y, Qi J, Zhang X, Liu K, Liu Y, Yu X, Bu Y, Chen B. Development and application of an early warning model for predicting early mortality following stent placement in malignant biliary obstruction: A comparative analysis of logistic regression and artificial neural network approaches. Oncol Lett 2025; 29:237. [PMID: 40166368 PMCID: PMC11956143 DOI: 10.3892/ol.2025.14983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/28/2025] [Indexed: 04/02/2025] Open
Abstract
Patients with malignant biliary obstruction (MBO) are often treated with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) combined with biliary stent placement for tumor progression. However, certain patients die within 30 days after the procedure, increasing healthcare resource consumption and patient burden. Therefore, the development of early mortality prediction models is important for optimizing treatment decisions. The present study retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 285 patients with MBO, including demographic information, laboratory indicators and tumor-related factors. Logistic regression and artificial neural network (ANN) models were used to construct a prediction tool, and the model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. The logistic regression model, which identified the cancer antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level and a history of previous ERCP surgery as independent risk factors, had an AUC of 0.727 and an accuracy of 65.0%. The ANN model, which combined five variables, namely CA19-9, history of previous ERCP surgery, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), liver metastasis and carcinoembryonic antigen, demonstrated that NLR was the most weighted predictor. Furthermore, the ANN model had an AUC of 0.813, an accuracy of 88.2% and a specificity that was markedly higher than that of the logistic regression model (95.5 vs. 83.3%). However, the ANN model was revealed to be slightly less sensitive compared with the logistic regression model (61.1 vs. 61.2%). In conclusion, compared with logistic regression, the ANN model had a greater performance level in terms of predictive power and specificity, and is suitable for capturing complex non-linear relationships. However, its complexity and risk of overfitting need to be further optimized. The present study provides a new tool for the accurate prediction of the risk of early death after ERCP in patients with MBO, which could help improve individualized treatment strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yongxin Ma
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Jiaojiao Qi
- Department of Obstetrics Function Center Inspection, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Xusheng Zhang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Kejun Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Yimin Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Xuehai Yu
- Department of Pediatric Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Yang Bu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Bendong Chen
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
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Caragut RL, Ilie M, Cabel T, Günșahin D, Panaitescu A, Pavel C, Plotogea OM, Rînja EM, Constantinescu G, Sandru V. Updates in Diagnosis and Endoscopic Management of Cholangiocarcinoma. Diagnostics (Basel) 2024; 14:490. [PMID: 38472961 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics14050490] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2023] [Revised: 02/10/2024] [Accepted: 02/17/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is an adenocarcinoma originating from the epithelial cells of the bile ducts/hepatocytes or peribiliary glands. There are three types of cholangiocarcinoma: intrahepatic, perihilar and distal. CCA represents approximately 3% of the gastrointestinal malignancies. The incidence of CCA is higher in regions of the Eastern world compared to the Western countries. There are multiple risk factors associated with cholangiocarcinoma such as liver fluke, primary sclerosing cholangitis, chronic hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Endoscopy plays an important role in the diagnosis and management of cholangiocarcinoma. The main endoscopic methods used for diagnosis, biliary drainage and delivering intrabiliary local therapies are endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography and endoscopic ultrasound. The purpose of this review is to analyze the current data found in literature about cholangiocarcinoma, with a focus on the actual diagnostic tools and endoscopic management options.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roxana-Luiza Caragut
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Madalina Ilie
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Carol Davila" Bucharest, 050474 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Teodor Cabel
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Deniz Günșahin
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Afrodita Panaitescu
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Christopher Pavel
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Carol Davila" Bucharest, 050474 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Oana Mihaela Plotogea
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Carol Davila" Bucharest, 050474 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Ecaterina Mihaela Rînja
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Gabriel Constantinescu
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Carol Davila" Bucharest, 050474 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Vasile Sandru
- Clinical Department of Gastroenterology, Bucharest Emergency Clinical Hospital, 014461 Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Carol Davila" Bucharest, 050474 Bucharest, Romania
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Gorji L, Beal EW. Surgical Treatment of Distal Cholangiocarcinoma. Curr Oncol 2022; 29:6674-6687. [PMID: 36135093 PMCID: PMC9498206 DOI: 10.3390/curroncol29090524] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2022] [Revised: 09/05/2022] [Accepted: 09/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) is a rare malignancy arising from the epithelial cells of the distal biliary tract and has a poor prognosis. dCCA is often clinically silent and patients commonly present with locally advanced and/or distant disease. For patients identified with early stage, resectable disease, surgical resection with negative margins remains the only curative treatment strategy available. However, despite appropriate treatment and diligent surveillance, risk of recurrence remains high with nearly 50% of patients experiencing recurrence at 5 years subsequent to surgical resection; therefore, it is prudent to continue to optimize neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies in order to reduce the risk of recurrence and improve overall survival. In this review, we discuss the clinical presentation, workup and surgical treatment of dCCA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leva Gorji
- Department of Surgery, Kettering Health Dayton, Dayton, OH 45405, USA
| | - Eliza W. Beal
- Departments of Oncology and Surgery, Barbara Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI 48201, USA
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Kakati RT, Othman M, Kharroubi H, Ataya K, Nassar H, Hafez B, Faraj W, Khalife MJ. The implications and management of complex biliary injuries at a tertiary hepatobiliary specialty center. SAGE Open Med Case Rep 2022; 10:2050313X221119587. [PMID: 36051406 PMCID: PMC9425897 DOI: 10.1177/2050313x221119587] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2022] [Accepted: 07/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Injuries of the biliary tract and complex injuries involving vascular and parenchymal tissue can be detrimental despite the improved use of laparoscopy. Complex biliary injuries are variable depending on the type of injury as well as patient and surgeon factors. We present four cases of complex biliary injuries at our tertiary referral center with hepatobiliary expertise: biliary stenosis with obstruction, double duct system anatomy, combined right hepatic arterial transection and biliary duct injury, and a complete pedicle injury. Early identification and specialized repair of complex biliary injuries is essential to minimize patient morbidity. Notably, consulting a specialist intraoperatively in case of difficult dissection and visualization or a suspected injury and considering bail-out strategies such as a subtotal cholecystectomy or conversion are safe approaches to minimize complex biliary injuries. Earlier recognition and repair of complex biliary injuries improves outcomes when immediate intraoperative repair can be performed rather than delayed postoperatively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rasha T Kakati
- Department of General Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Mohamad Othman
- Department of General Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of Balamand, Tripoli, Lebanon
| | | | - Karim Ataya
- Department of General Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Hussein Nassar
- Department of General Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Bassel Hafez
- Department of General Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Walid Faraj
- Department of General Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Mohamad Jawad Khalife
- Department of General Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
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de Souza GMV, Ribeiro IB, Funari MP, de Moura DTH, Scatimburgo MVCV, de Freitas Júnior JR, Sánchez-Luna SA, Baracat R, de Moura ETH, Bernardo WM, de Moura EGH. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography drainage for palliation of malignant hilar biliary obstruction - stent-in-stent or side-by-side? A systematic review and meta-analysis. World J Hepatol 2021; 13:595-610. [PMID: 34131473 PMCID: PMC8173339 DOI: 10.4254/wjh.v13.i5.595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2021] [Revised: 03/11/2021] [Accepted: 03/18/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Biliary drainage, either by the stent-in-stent (SIS) or side-by-side (SBS) technique, is often required when treating a malignant hilar biliary obstruction (MHBO). Both methods differ from each other and have distinct advantages. AIM To compare both techniques regarding their efficacy and safety in achieving drainage of MHBO. METHODS A comprehensive search of multiple electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, BIREME, Cochrane) was conducted and grey literature from their inception until December 2020 with no restrictions regarding the year of publication or language, since there was at least an abstract in English. The included studies compared SIS and SBS techniques through endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. Outcomes analyzed included technical and clinical success, early and late adverse events (AEs), stent patency, reintervention, and procedure-related mortality. RESULTS Four cohort studies and one randomized controlled trial evaluating a total of 250 patients (127 in the SIS group and 123 in the SBS group) were included in this study. There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups concerning the evaluated outcomes, except for stent patency, which was higher in the SIS compared with the SBS technique [mean difference (d) = 33.31; 95% confidence interval: 9.73 to 56.90, I 2 = 45%, P = 0.006]. CONCLUSION The SIS method showed superior stent patency when compared to SBS for achieving bilateral drainage in MHBO. Both techniques are equivalent in terms of technical success, clinical success, rates of both early and late AEs, reintervention, and procedure-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel Mayo Vieira de Souza
- Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Unit, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-010, Brazil
| | - Igor Braga Ribeiro
- Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Unit, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-010, Brazil.
| | - Mateus Pereira Funari
- Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Unit, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-010, Brazil
| | - Diogo Turiani Hourneaux de Moura
- Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Unit, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-010, Brazil
| | | | - João Remí de Freitas Júnior
- Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Unit, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-010, Brazil
| | - Sergio A Sánchez-Luna
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Center for Advanced Therapeutic Endoscopy, Allegheny Health Network, Pittsburgh, PA 15212, United States
| | - Renato Baracat
- Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Unit, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-010, Brazil
| | - Eduardo Turiani Hourneaux de Moura
- Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Unit, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-010, Brazil
| | - Wanderley Marques Bernardo
- Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Unit, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-010, Brazil
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