Hemoconcentration is a poor predictor of severity in acute pancreatitis

Table 1 Hemoconcentration at admission as a marker for severe acute pancreatitis (AP), necrotizing AP and organ failure

	Hemoconcentration	No hemoconcentration	Odds ratio ( 95%CI )	P value (χ2)
	(Hct≥44% M, Hct≥40% F)1	(Hct <44% M, Hct <40% F)
Severe AP (n = 336)
No	168	90	0.77	0.32
Yes	46	32	(0.4-1.3)
Necrotizing AP (n = 150)
No	55	41	1.17	0.64
Yes	33	21	(0.5-2.4)
Organ failure (n = 336)
No	187	104	0.83	0.58
Yes	27	18	(0.4-1.7)

¹Hct: hematocrit; M: male; F: female.

Table 2 Hemoconcentration at 24 h as a marker for severe acute pancreatitis (AP), necrotizing AP and organ failure

	Hemoconcentration	No hemoconcentration	Odds ratio (95%CI)	P value(χ2)
	(Hct≥44% M, Hct≥40% F)1	(Hct <44% M, Hct <40% F)
Severe AP (n = 233)
No	125	58	0.64	0.23
Yes	29		21	(0.3–1.2)
Necrotizing AP (n = 100)
No	39	24	0.9	0.97
Yes	22	15	(0.4–2)
Organ failure (n = 233)
No	139	68	0.68	0.47
Yes	15	11	(0.3–1.5)

¹Hct: hematocrit; M: male; F: female.

Table 3 Accuracy of hemoconcentration at admission and at 24 h later as a marker for severe acute pancreatitis (AP), necrotizing AP and organ failure

Groups	Sensitivity (%)		Specificity (%)		PPV (%)		NPV(%)
	Admission	24 h	Admission	24 h	Admission	24 h	Admission	24 h
Severe AP	59	58	35	31	21	18	74	73
Necrotizing AP	61	59	42	38	37	36	66	61
Organ failure	60	58	36	32	13	10	85	86

PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value.

Table 4 Prognostic values of hemoconcentration in previous studies

Studies	n	Prognostic criteria	sensitivy (%)	specificity (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)
		Necrosis
Baillargeon et al[17]	64	≥47% at admission	34	91	44	87
		Failure to decrease at 24 h	81	88
		Necrosis
Brown et al[18]	128	>44% at admission	72	83	68	85
		Failure to decrease at 24 h	94	69	61	96
		Organ failure
		>44% at admission	60	75	26	93
		Failure to decrease at 24 h	87	65	27	97
		Necrosis
Goulis et al[37]	63	>44% at admission	78	83	50	94
		Necrosis
Lankisch et al[20]	316	>43% for male and >39.6% for	74	45	24	88
		female at admission
		Necrosis
Pezzilli et al[36]	158	>43.8 at admission	52.3	74.6
		Severity
Khan et al[16]	58	>47% at admission	0	92	0	65
		>44% at admission	32	82	46	71
		Hct not decreasing	21	66	24	63
Present study	336	Severity
		>44% for male and 40% for	59	35	21	74