Viral Hepatitis
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2004.
World J Gastroenterol. Dec 15, 2004; 10(24): 3579-3582
Published online Dec 15, 2004. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v10.i24.3579
Table 1 Weight and threshold distribution of the best network
Unit 1Unit 2Unit 3Y
Threshold0.96071.08290.62240.4850
AR (1)0.23900.79301.0584
Time0.49020.43440.4156
Unit 10.5281
Unit 20.7572
Unit 31.0723
Table 2 ARIMA model coefficient and its testing results
VariablesCoefficientSE of coefficienttP
AR (1)0.830.126.885.27 × 10-6
Constant81.2230.942.621.91
Table 3 Comparison between BP network and ARIMA
Time (yr)Incidence (1/100000)Predicted value from ANNError from ANNPredicted value from ARIMAError from ARIMA
1981160.07----
1982136.68101.5835.10146.87-10.19
1983104.1294.639.49127.39-23.27
198450.5083.87-33.37100.29-49.79
198532.9962.34-29.3555.65-22.66
198626.7453.26-26.5241.07-14.33
198739.9449.11-9.1735.864.08
198836.7553.72-16.9746.85-10.10
198996.9250.4246.5044.2052.72
199091.3373.8417.4994.29-2.96
199179.5270.908.6289.64-10.12
199275.3164.6010.7179.81-4.50
199385.5761.3924.1876.309.27
199462.5464.00-1.4684.84-22.3
199528.2352.11-23.8865.67-37.44
199629.1435.20-6.0637.11-7.97
199742.9034.368.5437.865.04
199821.2538.01-16.7649.32-28.07
199934.3627.277.0954.66-20.30
200019.3130.87-11.5659.11-39.80
200139.0922.8816.2162.81-23.72