Retrospective Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2023. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Nov 14, 2023; 29(42): 5716-5727
Published online Nov 14, 2023. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v29.i42.5716
Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China
Yong-Bin Wang, Si-Yu Qing, Zi-Yue Liang, Chang Ma, Yi-Chun Bai, Chun-Jie Xu
Yong-Bin Wang, Si-Yu Qing, Zi-Yue Liang, Chang Ma, Yi-Chun Bai, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang 453003, Henan Province, China
Chun-Jie Xu, Beijing Key Laboratory of Antimicrobial Agents/Laboratory of Pharmacology, Institute of Medicinal Biotechnology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100010, China
Author contributions: Wang YB conceived, initiated, and performed this work; Qing SY, Ma C, Liang ZY, Bai YC, and Xu CJ collected, analyzed, and interpreted the data for this study; Wang YB, Qing SY, Liang ZY, Bai YC, Xu CJ, and Ma C edited and improved this original manuscript; all authors reviewed and approved the manuscript.
Supported by the Key Scientific Research Project of Universities in Henan Province, No. 21A330004; and Natural Science Foundation in Henan Province, No. 222300420265.
Institutional review board statement: This study was reviewed and approved by the institutional review board of Xinxiang Medical University (No: XYLL-2019072). All methods were carried out under relevant guidelines and regulations.
Informed consent statement: The need for informed consent was waived by the Ethics Committee of Xinxiang Medical University because the HB and HC cases were shared anonymously and we cannot access any identifying information of the patients (available from: https://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/).
Conflict-of-interest statement: We have no financial relationships to disclose.
Data sharing statement: All the data supporting the findings of the work are contained within the study or technical appendix, statistical code, and dataset available from the corresponding author at 191035@xxmu.edu.cn.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Yong-Bin Wang, MD, Researcher, Teacher, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang 453003, Henan Province, China. 191035@xxmu.edu.cn
Received: August 5, 2023
Peer-review started: August 5, 2023
First decision: September 18, 2023
Revised: September 28, 2023
Accepted: October 23, 2023
Article in press: October 23, 2023
Published online: November 14, 2023
Processing time: 97 Days and 21.1 Hours
Core Tip

Core Tip: This retrospective study used a seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (SARFIMA) to monitor hepatitis B (HB) and hepatitis C (HC) epidemics, and its forecasting potential was then compared to that of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (SARIMA). The resulting forecast error rates under the SARFIMA were less than those under the SARIMA. The integration of SARFIMA into public health decision-making for the management of HB and HC epidemics can result in more informed interventions. The predicted HB totaled 9865400 [95% confidence interval (95%CI): 7508093-12222709] cases and HC totaled 1659485 (95%CI: 856681-2462290) cases in 2030, resulting in major challenges to eliminate hepatitis in China by 2030.