Published online Apr 21, 2024. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v30.i15.2128
Peer-review started: December 30, 2023
First decision: January 27, 2024
Revised: February 8, 2024
Accepted: March 12, 2024
Article in press: March 12, 2024
Published online: April 21, 2024
Processing time: 111 Days and 0.6 Hours
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ranks as the sixth most prevalent tumour and stands as the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally. Liver cirrhosis emerges as the primary risk factor for HCC, affecting nearly 90% of patients with HCC to varying degrees. The prognosis for HCC with cirrhosis remains poor, primarily attributable to the elevated recurrence rates.
Individuals with HCC in the background of cirrhosis frequently experience higher recurrence rates compared to patients with HCC in a non-cirrhotic liver. Therefore, the purpose of our study was to establish a model that could predict early recurrence (ER) of HCC within the context of cirrhosis.
To develop a machine learning model to predict the ER of post-hepatectomy HCC in patients with cirrhosis and stratify patients’ overall survival (OS) based on the predicted risk of recurrence.
In this retrospective study, 214 HCC patients with cirrhosis who underwent curative hepatectomy were examined. Radiomics feature selection employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and recursive feature elimination. Clinical-radiologic features were selected through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Five machine learning methods were used for model comparison and optimal model selection. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the model’s performance. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve was used to assess the model’s stratification effect on patient OS.
The optimal performance in predicting ER of HCC within the context of cirrhosis was observed in a model that integrated radiomics features and clinical-radiologic features. This model attained an AUC of 0.844 in the training cohort and 0.790 in the validation cohort. K-M curves demonstrated that the combined model not only allowed for risk stratification but also exhibited significant discrimination in patients’ OS.
The combined model that integrates radiomics and clinical-radiologic characteristics achieved excellent performance in patients with HCC with a background of cirrhosis. K-M curves assessing OS revealed statistically significant differences.
Given the significant impact of ER on the prognosis of HCC in patients with cirrhosis, accurately predicting such recurrence is paramount. The study aims to investigate the prediction of ER in HCC with cirrhosis using enhanced computed tomography radiomics.