Observational Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2022. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Aug 28, 2022; 28(32): 4698-4715
Published online Aug 28, 2022. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v28.i32.4698
International patterns in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in the last three decades: A joinpoint regression analysis
Irena Ilic, Milena Ilic
Irena Ilic, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade 11000, Serbia
Milena Ilic, Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac 34000, Serbia
Author contributions: All authors equally contributed to this paper with conception and design of the study, data acquisition and analysis, interpretation of data, searched the literature, drafting and critical revision and editing, and approval of the final version.
Supported by Ministry of Education, Science and Technological development, Republic of Serbia, 2011-2020, No. 175042.
Institutional review board statement: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac (No. 01-14321).
Informed consent statement: The study was conducted using publicly available data. No patient approvals were sought nor required for this study. The data used for inputs and analysis were derived from public sources (such as websites, primarily). Our research question about the international trends in incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in last three decades was based on the number of pancreatic cancer cases and deaths in the world in last three decades. Therefore, as our model-based analysis used aggregated (not individually identifiable) data from publicly available sources, patients were not involved in the design, or conduct, or reporting or dissemination plans of the research.
Conflict-of-interest statement: All the authors report no relevant conflicts of interest for this article.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
STROBE statement: The authors have read the STROBE Statement-checklist of items, and the manuscript was prepared and revised according to the STROBE Statement-checklist of items.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Milena Ilic, MD, PhD, Professor, Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, S. Markovica 69, Kragujevac 34000, Serbia. drmilenailic@yahoo.com
Received: March 2, 2022
Peer-review started: March 2, 2022
First decision: April 12, 2022
Revised: May 5, 2022
Accepted: June 20, 2022
Article in press: June 20, 2022
Published online: August 28, 2022
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
Research background

Pancreatic cancer, as the one of most fatal malignancies, remains a critical issue in the global burden of disease.

Research motivation

The main motivation of this study was to describe the international patterns in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in the last three decades. Accurate assessment of pancreatic cancer burden is crucial for more effective disease control.

Research objectives

The aim of this study was to estimate trends in incidence and mortality due to pancreatic cancer in the world in the last three decades.

Research methods

A descriptive epidemiological study was done. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database. The age-standardized rates (expressed per 100000) were presented. To estimate trends of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, joinpoint regression analysis was used: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated.

Research results

The general pattern of rising pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality was seen across countries worldwide. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer incidence, females in France and India showed the most marked rise in incidence rates (AAPC = +3.9% and AAPC = +3.7%, respectively). Decreasing pancreatic cancer incidence trends have been observed in some countries but without significance. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer mortality rates, Turkmenistan showed the most marked rise both in males (AAPC = +10.0%, 95%CI: 7.4%–12.5%) and females (AAPC = +6.4%, 95%CI: 3.5%–9.5%). The mortality trends of pancreatic cancer were decreasing in both sexes only in Canada and Mexico.

Research conclusions

The increasing trends in incidence and mortality from pancreatic cancer were observed across the world, particularly in developed countries. The favorable pattern in trends in incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer was reported in only a few countries.

Research perspectives

Further research is needed to explain the cause of large international differences in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer.