Retrospective Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2018. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Oct 21, 2018; 24(39): 4499-4509
Published online Oct 21, 2018. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v24.i39.4499
Postoperative survival analysis and prognostic nomogram model for patients with portal hypertension
Ya-Fei Zhang, Hong Ji, Hong-Wei Lu, Le Lu, Lei Wang, Jin-Long Wang, Yi-Ming Li
Ya-Fei Zhang, Hong Ji, Hong-Wei Lu, Le Lu, Lei Wang, Jin-Long Wang, Yi-Ming Li, Department of General Surgery, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710004, Shaanxi Province, China
Author contributions: Li YM conceived the research and critically reviewed and revised the paper; Zhang YF, Ji H, Lu HW and Lu L designed the research and analysed the data; Zhang YF and Li YM performed the research; all authors participated in the operations; Zhang YF drafted the paper.
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 81170454, No. 30772049 and No. 30571765.
Institutional review board statement: The study was reviewed and approved by the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University Institutional Review Board.
Informed consent statement: The requirement for written informed patient consent was waived due to the retrospective and anonymous nature of this study; all data were used only for statistical analysis.
Conflict-of-interest statement: All authors declare no conflicts of interest related to this study.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Correspondence to: Yi-Ming Li, MD, Professor, Department of General Surgery, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, No. 157, Xiwu Road, Xi’an 710004, Shaanxi Province, China. liyiming@xjtu.edu.cn
Telephone: +86-29-87679746 Fax: +86-29-87679746
Received: August 8, 2018
Peer-review started: August 8, 2018
First decision: August 30, 2018
Revised: September 6, 2018
Accepted: October 5, 2018
Article in press: October 5, 2018
Published online: October 21, 2018
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
Research background

Patients with portal hypertension (PH) still have higher re-bleeding rates and mortality after splenectomy plus pericardial devascularisation. We simplified splenectomy plus traditional pericardial devascularisation (STPD) and put forward splenectomy plus simplified pericardial devascularisation (SSPD), whose initial curative effects have been verified, but its long-term survival effects are not clear. Therefore, we need to identify the best postoperative treatment to improve the prognosis of these patients, and a determination of the underlying influencing factors is useful for estimating outcomes and determining the appropriate treatments.

Research motivation

SSPD achieves or surpasses the long-term survival outcome of STPD and is worthy of clinical promotion and application. In clinical practice, males and older patients, patients with longer operative time, patients with higher Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI), alanine transaminase (ALT) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores at admission, patients with larger amounts of intraoperative bleeding and patients with longer postoperative exhaust time should receive more attention.

Research objectives

The main aim of the retrospective research was to assess the postoperative survival rates of PH patients and identify the clinical efficacy of SSPD. Factors influencing survival and nomograms were also identified.

Research methods

Five hundred fifty-seven (53.30%) patients were successfully followed. We performed a Kaplan-Meier analysis to construct survival curves. We also applied log-rank test to verify the significance of difference in survival rates. The risk factors were estimated using a univariate Cox regression analysis. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the relative risk and to identify independent prognostic factors. The “rms” R library was used to construct nomograms.

Research results

Five hundred and fifty-seven (53.30%) patients were successfully followed; 93 (16.70%) patients died, of whom 42 (7.54%) patients died due to bleeding. Postoperative bleeding was observed in 84 (15.10%) patients. There was no significant difference between SSPD and STPD in 5- and 10-year overall survival (OS), disease-specific survival (DSS) and bleeding-free survival (BFS) rates. Age, operative time, ALT level and the ALBI score were independent prognostic factors for OS. Male sex, age, intraoperative blood loss and time to the first flatus were independent prognostic factors for BFS. CCI and age were independent prognostic factors for DSS. Nomograms were established and were better at predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and BFS rates.

Research conclusions

SSPD achieves or surpasses the long-term survival outcomes of STPD, which is worthy of clinical promotion and application. In clinical practice, males, older patients, patients with longer operative time, patients with higher CCI scores, ALT levels and ALBI scores at admission, and patients with larger amounts of intraoperative bleeding and longer postoperative exhaust time should receive more attention. Nomograms are better in predicting prognosis according to individual patient characteristics.

Research perspectives

In the future, the long-term survival of patients with PH undergoing SSPD should be assessed in large-scale prospective studies.