Published online Nov 21, 2023. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v29.i43.5804
Peer-review started: August 26, 2023
First decision: September 18, 2023
Revised: October 7, 2023
Accepted: November 3, 2023
Article in press: November 3, 2023
Published online: November 21, 2023
Processing time: 85 Days and 17.3 Hours
Surgical resection is the primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, studies indicate that nearly 70% of patients experience HCC recurrence within five years following hepatectomy. The earlier the recurrence, the worse the prognosis. Current studies on postoperative recurrence primarily rely on posto
To identify key variables in pre-operative clinical and imaging data using ma
The demographic and clinical data of 371 HCC patients were collected for this retrospective study. These data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 8:2. The training set was analyzed, and key feature variables with predictive value for early HCC recurrence were selected to construct six different machine learning prediction models. Each model was evaluated, and the best-performing model was selected for interpreting the importance of each variable. Finally, an online calculator based on the model was generated for daily clinical practice.
Following machine learning analysis, eight key feature variables (age, intratumoral arteries, alpha-fetoprotein, pre-operative blood glucose, number of tumors, glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio, liver cirrhosis, and pre-operative platelets) were selected to construct six different prediction models. The XGBoost model outperformed other models, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training, validation, and test datasets being 0.993 (95% confidence interval: 0.982-1.000), 0.734 (0.601-0.867), and 0.706 (0.585-0.827), respectively. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated that the XGBoost model also had good predictive performance and clinical application value.
The XGBoost model exhibits superior performance and is a reliable tool for predicting early postoperative HCC recurrence. This model may guide surgical strategies and postoperative individualized medicine.
Core Tip: The current study aimed at employing machine learning techniques to select imaging and pre-operative clinical characteristic variables, to which the clinicians were easily accessible, to develop six different risk prediction models for early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We compared the sensitivity and specificity of these models in detecting patients at high risk of early postoperative recurrence of HCC. In addition, to increase the feasibility and applicability of the constructed model, we generated a calculator online based on the predictive model to help clinicians apply it in their daily medical practice.