Published online Nov 7, 2016. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v22.i41.9205
Peer-review started: June 28, 2016
First decision: August 8, 2016
Revised: August 20, 2016
Accepted: September 14, 2016
Article in press: September 14, 2016
Published online: November 7, 2016
Processing time: 135 Days and 2.1 Hours
To assess the performance of proposed scores specific for acute-on-chronic liver failure in predicting short-term mortality among patients with alcoholic hepatitis.
We retrospectively collected data from 264 patients with clinically diagnosed alcoholic hepatitis from January to December 2013 at 21 academic hospitals in Korea. The performance for predicting short-term mortality was calculated for Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA), CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs), Maddrey’s discriminant function (DF), age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio and creatinine score (ABIC), Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-Na.
Of 264 patients, 32 (12%) patients died within 28 d. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OFs, DF, ABIC, GAHS, MELD, and MELD-Na was 0.86 (0.81-0.90), 0.89 (0.84-0.92), 0.79 (0.74-0.84), 0.78 (0.72-0.83), 0.81 (0.76-0.86), 0.83 (0.78-0.88), and 0.83 (0.78-0.88), respectively, for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-SOFA had no statistically significant differences for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-C OFs was superior to that of DF, ABIC, and GAHS, while comparable to that of MELD and MELD-Na in predicting 28-d mortality. A CLIF-SOFA score of 8 had 78.1% sensitivity and 79.7% specificity, and CLIF-C OFs of 10 had 68.8% sensitivity and 91.4% specificity for predicting 28-d mortality.
CLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C OF scores performed well, with comparable predictive ability for short-term mortality compared to the commonly used scoring systems in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.
Core tip: Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) often leads to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which is characterized by acute hepatic decompensation of chronic liver disease, organ failure, and high short-term mortality. We investigated the prognostic utilities of proposed scores specific for ACLF in predicting short-term mortality among patients with AH. Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF)-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score performed well, and showed comparable predictive ability for short-term mortality compared to commonly used scoring systems proposed for AH. The present study suggests that scores proposed for ACLF could be useful in predicting short-term morality in patients with AH.