Observational Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2016. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Jul 28, 2016; 22(28): 6527-6538
Published online Jul 28, 2016. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v22.i28.6527
Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Pétala Tuani Candido de Oliveira Salvador, Juliano dos Santos, Karina Cardoso Meira, Amanda Rodrigues Camacho, Raphael Mendonça Guimarães, Dyego LB Souza
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Natal 59010-000, Brazil
Pétala Tuani Candido de Oliveira Salvador, Karina Cardoso Meira, Health School, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal 59010-000, Brazil
Juliano dos Santos, National Cancer Institute, Cancer Hospital III, Rio de Janeiro, Natal 59010-000, Brazil
Amanda Rodrigues Camacho, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, University Hospital Onofre Lopes, Natal 59010-000, Brazil
Raphael Mendonça Guimarães, Polytechnic Health School Joaquim Venâncio, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Natal 59010-000, Brazil
Dyego LB Souza, Department of Collective Health, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal 59010-000, Brazil
Author contributions: de Souza Giusti ACB, Meira KC and Souza DLB contributed to study conception and design; de Souza Giusti ACB, de Oliveira Salvador PTC, dos Santos J, Camacho AR and Guimarães RM contributed to data acquisition and data analysis; de Souza Giusti ACB, Meira KC and Souza DLB contributed to interpretation, and writing of article; de Souza Giusti ACB, de Oliveira Salvador PTC, dos Santos J, Camacho AR, Guimarães RM, Meira KC and Souza DLB contributed to the edition, review and final approval of article.
Institutional review board statement: The study was reviewed and approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.
Informed consent statement: This is an ecological-type observational study that utilized public domain data from the Brazilian government website. All details that might disclose the identity of the subjects were omitted or anonymized.
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare no conflicting interests.
Data sharing statement: Data sharing statement is not applicable, as this is an ecological-type observational study based on public domain data from the Brazilian government website.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Correspondence to: Dyego LB Souza, PhD, Public Health, Department of Collective Health, Graduate Program in Public Health, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, 1787 Senador Salgado Filho Ave., Lagoa Nova, Natal 59010-000, Brazil. dysouz@yahoo.com.br
Telephone: +55-84-32154133 Fax: +55-84-32154133
Received: March 2, 2016
Peer-review started: March 3, 2016
First decision: April 1, 2016
Revised: May 18, 2016
Accepted: June 13, 2016
Article in press: June 13, 2016
Published online: July 28, 2016
Processing time: 141 Days and 18.3 Hours
Abstract

AIM: To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029.

METHODS: An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R.

RESULTS: Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980’s, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000’s, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates.

CONCLUSION: Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates.

Keywords: Gastric neoplasms; Brazil; Projections; Mortality

Core tip: Currently there are no detailed predictions in Brazil per geographic region and this study will provide the means for the elaboration of public health actions. This study presents a high citation potential, due to the innovative methodology and to the scientific development of Brazil, which is among the countries with most publications nowadays.