Published online Jan 7, 2015. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v21.i1.276
Peer-review started: March 27, 2014
First decision: May 29, 2014
Revised: June 7, 2014
Accepted: July 15, 2014
Article in press: July 16, 2014
Published online: January 7, 2015
Processing time: 286 Days and 19.6 Hours
AIM: To determine the risk factors for gallstone-related biliary events.
METHODS: This retrospective cohort study evaluated magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography images from 141 symptomatic and 39 asymptomatic gallstone patients who presented at a single tertiary hospital between January 2005 and December 2012.
RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis showed significant differences between symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with gallstones in relation to the number of gallstones, the angle between the long axis of the gallbladder and the cystic duct, and the cystic duct diameter. Multivariate analysis showed that the number of gallstones (OR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.03-1.57; P = 0.026), the angle between the long axis of the gallbladder and the cystic duct (OR = 1.02, 95%CI: 1.00-1.03; P = 0.015), and the diameter of the cystic duct (OR = 0.819, 95%CI: 0.69-0.97; P = 0.018) were significantly associated with biliary events. The incidence of biliary events was significantly elevated in patients who had the presence of more than two gallstones, an angle of > 92° between the gallbladder and the cystic duct, and a cystic duct diameter < 6 mm.
CONCLUSION: These findings will help guide the treatment of patients with asymptomatic gallstones. Clinicians should closely monitor patients with asymptomatic gallstones who exhibit these characteristics.
Core tip: This is a retrospective cohort study that evaluated magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography images from 180 patients. We found that the incidence of biliary events was significantly elevated in patients who had more than two gallstones, an angle of > 92° between the gallbladder and the cystic duct, and/or a cystic duct diameter < 6 mm. When considering these factors as a risk factor of gallstone-related biliary events, the positive predictive value for biliary events in patients with all three risk factors was 89.3%.