Brief Articles
Copyright ©2009 The WJG Press and Baishideng. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Apr 7, 2009; 15(13): 1607-1612
Published online Apr 7, 2009. doi: 10.3748/wjg.15.1607
An autoregressive integrated moving average model for short-term prediction of hepatitis C virus seropositivity among male volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan
Saeed Akhtar, Shafquat Rozi
Saeed Akhtar, Department of Community Medicine and Behavioral Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Kuwait University, PO Box 24923, Safat 13110, Kuwait Shafquat Rozi, Department of Community Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Stadium Road, Karachi 74800, Pakistan
Author contributions: Akhtar S designed the study, analyzed the data, and wrote the manuscript; Rozi S participated in HCV surveillance, helped in data collection, and data management.
Correspondence to: Saeed Akhtar, PhD, Department of Community Medicine and Behavioral Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Kuwait University, PO Box 24923, Safat 13110, Kuwait. saeed.akhtar@hsc.edu.kw
Telephone: +965-2498-6542
Fax: +965-2533-8948
Received: September 8, 2008
Revised: December 18, 2008
Accepted: December 25, 2008
Published online: April 7, 2009
Abstract

AIM: To identify the stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for short term forecasting of hepatitis C virus (HCV) seropositivity among volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan.

METHODS: Ninety-six months (1998-2005) data on HCV seropositive cases (1000-1× month-1) among male volunteer blood donors tested at four major blood banks in Karachi, Pakistan were subjected to ARIMA modeling. Subsequently, a fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast HCV seropositive donors for 91-96 mo to contrast with observed series of the same months. To assess the forecast accuracy, the mean absolute error rate (%) between the observed and predicted HCV seroprevalence was calculated. Finally, a fitted ARIMA model was used for short-term forecasts beyond the observed series.

RESULTS: The goodness-of-fit test of the optimum ARIMA (2,1,7) model showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. The forecasts by ARIMA for 91-96 mo closely followed the pattern of observed series for the same months, with mean monthly absolute forecast errors (%) over 6 mo of 6.5%. The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed increasing tendency of HCV seropositivity with a mean ± SD HCV seroprevalence (1000-1× month-1) of 24.3 ± 1.4 over the forecast interval.

CONCLUSION: To curtail HCV spread, public health authorities need to educate communities and health care providers about HCV transmission routes based on known HCV epidemiology in Pakistan and its neighboring countries. Future research may focus on factors associated with hyperendemic levels of HCV infection.

Keywords: Hepatitis C virus; Blood donor; Ecological analysis; Autoregressive integrated moving average model; Pakistan