• Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography
• Nomogram
• Pancreatitis
• Prediction model
• Risk factors

Current guidelines for treating asymptomatic common bile duct stones (CBDS) recommend stone removal, with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) being the first treatment choice. When deciding on ERCP treatment for asymptomatic CBDS, the risk of ERCP-related complications and outcome of natural history of asymptomatic CBDS should be compared. The incidence rate of ERCP-related complications, particularly of post-ERCP pancreatitis for asymptomatic CBDS, was reportedly higher than that of symptomatic CBDS, increasing the risk of ERCP-related complications for asymptomatic CBDS compared with that previously reported for biliopancreatic diseases. Although studies have reported short- to middle-term outcomes of natural history of asymptomatic CBDS, its long-term natural history is not well known. Till date, there are no prospective studies that determined whether ERCP has a better outcome than no treatment in patients with asymptomatic CBDS or not. No randomized controlled trial has evaluated the risk of early and late ERCP-related complications vs the risk of biliary complications in the wait-and-see approach, suggesting that a change is needed in our perspective on endoscopic treatment for asymptomatic CBDS. Further studies examining long-term complication risks of ERCP and wait-and-see groups for asymptomatic CBDS are warranted to discuss whether routine endoscopic treatment for asymptomatic CBDS is justified or not.

• Asymptomatic common bile duct stone
• Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography
• Complication
• Natural history of asymptomatic common bile duct stone
• Guideline
• Recommendation

• Cholangiopancreatography, Endoscopic Retrograde/adverse effects
• Common Bile Duct
• Gallstones/diagnostic imaging
• Gallstones/surgery
• Humans
• Pancreatitis/diagnostic imaging
• Pancreatitis/epidemiology
• Pancreatitis/etiology
• Treatment Outcome

Introduction: Common bile duct stones (CBDS) are a common disease that can cause biliary complications, including cholangitis, obstructive jaundice, and biliary pancreatitis. Regardless of the presence or absence of symptoms, endoscopic removal of CBDS is generally recommended, but endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a high-risk procedure with complications, such as post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). As few reports have addressed the risk of PEP by focusing on asymptomatic CBDS, the purpose of this study is to examine the incidence of PEP for asymptomatic CBDS.

Methods: This retrospective study included data from 302 patients with naive papilla who underwent therapeutic ERCP for CBDS between January 2012 and December 2019 at our hospital. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate independent risk factors for PEP.

Results: Of the 302 patients, 32 were asymptomatic, and the remaining 270 were symptomatic. Five asymptomatic patients (15.6%) suffered from mild PEP, whereas 10 (3.7%) symptomatic patients suffered from PEP (9 were mild, and 1 was severe). Univariate analysis identified deep cannulation time more than 10 min, endoscopic papillary balloon dilation (EPBD), and asymptomatic CBDS as risk factors for PEP, whereas multivariate analysis revealed deep cannulation time more than 10 min (odds ratio (OR), 6.67; p < 0.001), EPBD (HR, 5.70; p < 0.001), and asymptomatic CBDS (HR, 5.49; p < 0.001) as independent risk factors for PEP.

Conclusions: A wait-and-see approach may be an option for the management of asymptomatic CBDS. EPBD may be avoided, especially in case of asymptomatic or if difficult for bile duct cannulation.

• asymptomatic
• common bile duct stones
• deep cannulation time
• endoscopic papillary balloon dilation
• post-ERCP pancreatitis