Predictors of future stroke in adults 60-64 years living in the community

Table 1 Sample characteristics

	Comparison groups
	Controls (n = 1746)		Stroke (n = 28)
	Mean/count	SD (%)	Mean/count	SD (%)
Age	62.52	1.51	62.50	1.58
Female	851	48.70	11	39.30
Caucasian	1686	96.60	28	100.00
MMSE	29.38	0.85	29.25	0.80
Education	14.08	2.62	13.77	2.90
Hypertension	1095	62.70	241	85.70
Diastolic BP	82.85	10.5	88.041	10.81
Systolic BP	139.14	18.58	155.251	24.46
BP medication	525	30.10	14	50.00
FVC	3.29	0.79	3.22	0.79
BMI	26.82	4.99	27.37	6.12
Diabetes	115	6.60	1	3.60
Smoker (ever)	786	45.00	191	68.00
Alcohol	6.96	8.19	9.46	13
Physical activity	13.98	12.92	11.97	10.76
Anxiety symptoms	2.12	2.23	2.71	2.57
Depress symptoms	1.62	1.80	1.75	2.12
Depression status	13	6.20	1	3.60
Anxiety medication	10	4.80	1	3.60
Depression medication	7	3.40	1	3.60
SDMT	50.85	8.78	49.21	9.65
Delayed recall	6.28	2.41	6.07	2.29
Digit backward	4.86	2.17	5.14	2.32
Spot-the-word	51.74	5.36	53.64	5.42
Purdue pegboard	10.60	1.57	9.752	1.29
BIS	20.18	3.14	20.32	2.74
Negative affect	13.64	4.64	13.75	4.15
Neuroticism	3.22	2.91	3.96	4.16
Extraversion	6.90	3.42	6.82	4.39
Psychoticism	1.71	1.32	1.82	1.59

Significant difference at

¹P = 0.05,

²P = 0.01. MMSE: Mini mental state examination; BP: Blood pressure; FVC: Forced vital capacity; BMI: Body mass index; SDMT: Symbol-digit modalities test; BIS: Behavioural inhibition scale; SD: Standard deviation.

Table 2 Predictors of stroke during middle age (65-72 years) in the whole cohort (n = 1774)

Predictors	B	SE	Wald	df	Sig	Exp(B)	95%CI for EXP(B)
							Lower	Upper
Covariates
Sex	-0.431	0.394	1.195	1	0.274	0.650	0.300	1.407
Age	-0.002	0.127	0.000	1	0.985	0.998	0.778	1.279
Education	-0.056	0.071	0.628	1	0.428	0.945	0.823	1.086
Cardio-vascular
Hypertension	0.321	0.639	0.252	1	0.616	1.378	0.394	4.824
Systolic BP	0.041	0.013	9.820	1	0.002	1.042	1.015	1.069
Diastolic BP	-0.018	0.024	0.551	1	0.458	0.982	0.937	1.030
FVC	-0.157	0.313	0.251	1	0.616	0.855	0.463	1.578
BMI	-0.001	0.039	0.001	1	0.975	0.999	0.926	1.077
Lifestyle
Alcohol	0.016	0.019	0.759	1	0.384	1.017	0.980	1.055
Ever smoker	0.824	0.424	3.773	1	0.052	2.280	0.993	5.235
Physical activity	-0.015	0.016	0.865	1	0.352	0.985	0.954	1.017
Mental health
Anxiety symptoms	0.153	0.104	2.147	1	0.143	1.165	0.950	1.429
Depression symptoms	-0.012	0.142	0.007	1	0.932	0.988	0.748	1.305
Depression status	-0.530	1.092	0.235	1	0.628	0.589	0.069	5.008
Cognition/sensorimotor
SDMT	-0.020	0.024	0.715	1	0.398	0.980	0.934	1.027
Delayed recall	-0.039	0.089	0.186	1	0.666	0.962	0.808	1.146
Digit backward	0.024	0.095	0.066	1	0.797	1.025	0.851	1.233
Spot-the-word	0.083	0.047	3.122	1	0.077	1.087	0.991	1.192
Purdue pegboard	-0.250	0.120	4.349	1	0.037	0.779	0.616	0.985
Personality
BIS	-0.017	0.077	0.052	1	0.820	0.983	0.845	1.143
Negative affect	-0.038	0.051	0.551	1	0.458	0.963	0.870	1.065
Neuroticism	0.151	0.082	3.419	1	0.064	1.163	0.991	1.364
Extraversion	0.039	0.057	0.468	1	0.494	1.040	0.929	1.164
Psychoticism	0.082	0.143	0.330	1	0.566	1.085	0.821	1.436

BP: Blood pressure; FVC: Forced vital capacity; BMI: Body mass index; SDMT: Symbol-digit modalities test; BIS: Behavioural inhibition scale.

Table 3 Comparison of predictor variables between stroke and matched controls

Predictors	Matched controls		Stroke		Fχ	P
	Mean/count	SD (%)	Mean/count	S (%)
Socio-demographic
Age	62.48	1.48	62.5	1.58	0.005	0.945
Education	13.78	2.54	13.77	2.90	0.000	0.984
Cardio-vascular
Hypertension	105	75	24	85.7	1.498	0.223
Systolic BP	141.23	19.41	155.25	24.46	11.103	0.001
Diastolic BP	84.02	12.06	87.95	10.62	2.574	0.111
FVC	3.37	0.80	3.22	0.79	0.743	0.390
BMI	26.73	4.98	27.37	6.12	0.352	0.554
Lifestyle
Alcohol	7.66	8.79	9.46	13.00	0.815	0.368
Ever smoker	66	47.1	19	67.9	4.054	0.046
Physical activity	14.82	14.07	11.97	10.76	1.026	0.313
Mental health
Anxiety symptoms	2.05	2.24	2.71	2.57	1.959	0.163
Depression symptoms	1.49	1.77	1.75	2.12	0.460	0.498
Depression status	4	2.9	1	3.6	0.041	0.840
Cognition/sensorimotor
SDMT	51.29	7.78	49.21	9.65	1.520	0.219
Delayed recall	6.21	2.28	6.07	2.29	0.091	0.763
Digit backward	4.86	2.07	5.14	2.32	0.405	0.525
Spot-the-word	51.94	5.09	53.64	5.42	2.546	0.112
Purdue pegboard	10.42	1.52	9.75	1.29	4.722	0.031
Personality
BIS	20.04	3.27	20.32	2.74	0.187	0.666
Negative affect	1.70	1.35	1.82	1.59	0.178	0.674
Neuroticism	3.02	2.81	3.96	4.16	2.205	0.139
Extraversion	13.56	4.81	13.75	4.15	0.036	0.849
Psychoticism	6.72	3.32	6.82	4.39	0.021	0.886

Group differences were tested with t-tests (P uncorrected). BP: Blood pressure; FVC: Forced vital capacity; BMI: Body mass index; SDMT: Symbol-digit modalities test; BIS: Behavioural inhibition scale.