Development and validation of a predictive model for acute-on-chronic liver failure after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

Table 1 Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of variables in predicting the incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure within 1 year after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in the training cohort

Variables	OR comparison	Univariate analysis			Multivariate analysis
		OR	95%CI	P value	OR	95%CI	P value
Gender	Male vs female	0.922	0.471-1.802	0.811
Age	≥ 65 yr vs < 65 yr	2.086	1.074-4.055	0.030	2.649	1.263-5.558	0.010a
DM	Yes vs No	1.847	0.905-3.769	0.092
Portal vein thrombosis	Yes vs No	0.809	0.411-1.590	0.539
Splenectomy	Yes vs No	0.426	0.146-1.240	0.117
Etiology of cirrhosis	Viral hepatitis vs other	1.174	0.609-2.265	0.631
TIPS indication	EGVB vs refractory ascites	1.304	0.477-3.563	0.605
WBC	< 4.0 × 109/L vs ≥ 4.0 × 109/L	0.578	0.297-1.123	0.106
PLT	< 100 × 109/L vs ≥ 100 × 109/L	2.085	0.930-4.674	0.075
ALT	> 40 U/L vs ≤ 40 U/L	2.000	0.856-4.673	0.109
TBil	17.1-34.1 μmol/L vs < 17.1 μmol/L	3.064	1.212-7.742	0.018	2.944	1.151-7.528	0.024a
	34.2-51.2 μmol/L vs < 17.1 μmol/L	12.357	4.433-34.443	0	11.632	4.068-33.259	< 0.001a
	≥ 51.3 μmol/L vs < 17.1 μmol/L	24.714	6.342-96.315	0	28.746	6.969-118.579	< 0.001a
Alb	≥ 35.0 g/L vs < 35.0 g/L	1.651	0.758-3.596	0.206
Na	< 135 mmol/L vs ≥ 135 mmol/L	3.606	1.402-9.275	0.008	2.741	0.960-7.821	0.0601
Scr	≥ 133 μmol/L vs < 133 μmol/L	1.368	0.295-6.349	0.689
INR	< 1.5 vs ≥ 1.5	2.363	1.001-5.575	0.050
FIB	< 2.0 g/L vs ≥ 2.0 g/L	1.542	0.726-3.273	0.259
Stent diameter	≥ 8 mm vs < 8 mm	0.787	0.392-1.581	0.501
Puncture site	Right branch vs left branch	1.000	0.373-2.680	1.000
	Bifurcation vs left branch	1.067	0.437-2.602	0.887
	Trunk vs left branch	0.889	0.352-2.246	0.803

^aP < 0.05.

¹Included on the basis of a minimized Akaike Information Criterion value.

OR: Odd ratio; 95%CI: 95% confidence interval; DM: Diabetes mellitus; TIPS: Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt; EGVB: Esophagogastric variceal bleeding; WBC: White blood cell; PLT: Platelet; ALT: Alanine transaminase; TBil: Total bilirubin; Alb: Albumin; Na: Sodium; Scr: Serum creatinine; INR: International normalized ratio; FIB: Fibrinogen.

Table 2 Risk score scale for prediction of the incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure within 1 year after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

Variable	1 point	2 points	3 points	4 points
Age (yr)	< 65.0	≥ 65.0
TBil (μmol/L)	≤ 17.1	17.2-34.2	34.3-51.3	> 51.3
Na (mmol/L)	≥ 135.0	< 135.0

TBil: Total bilirubin; Na: Sodium.