MH-STRALP: A scoring system for prognostication in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Figure 1 Cohorts for the study. UGIB: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding; ICU: Intensive care unit.

Figure 2 Nomogram for the prognostic model of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (MH-STRALP). To calculate the probability of the compound outcomes, points for each parameter are assigned by corresponding values from the “points” axis, and sum of the points is plotted on “total points” axis. UGIC: Upper gastrointestinal carcinoma; SRH: Stigmata of recent hemorrhage.

Figure 3 Performance and validation of the MH-STRALP nomogram. A: The area under the curve (AUC) of the MH-STRALP nomogram for prognostic prediction of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in the training cohort; B: The calibration curve for the prognostic nomogram. The x-axis represents the nomogram-predicted probability and y-axis represents the actual probability of the compound outcomes. A perfect prediction would correspond to the 45° grey line. The brown line represents the entire cohort bias-corrected by bootstrapping (B = 1000 repetitions), indicating observed nomogram performance; C: The AUC of the MH-STRALP nomogram in the internal cross-validation analysis in the training cohort; D: The decision curve analysis compared the accuracy for prognostic prediction between MH-STRALP nomogram and other scoring systems; E: The AUC of the MH-STRALP nomogram for prognostic prediction of UGIB in the validation cohort. ROC: Receiver operating characteristic.

Figure 4 The area under the curve of the pre-endoscopic scoring system (pre-MH-STRALP) for prognostic prediction of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. A: The area under the curve (AUC) of the pre-endoscopic scoring system (pre-MH-STRALP) for prognostic prediction of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in the training cohort; B: The AUC of the pre-endoscopic scoring system (pre-MH-STRALP) for prognostic prediction of UGIB in the validation cohort. ROC: Receiver operating characteristic.