Combination of type IV collagen 7S, albumin concentrations, and platelet count predicts prognosis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Figure 1 Survival of the 489 patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The follow-up period varied between 1 yr and 21.2 yr, and all-cause mortality was considered. The survival rates are 98.5% at 5 yr, 95.4% at 10 yr, 91.9% at 15 yr, and 91.9% at 20 yr.

Figure 2 Survival rates according to the grading of fibrosis, inflammation, and steatosis. The overall survival rates for stage 4 liver fibrosis are 81% at 5 yr and 41% at 10 yr. A: Fibrosis (F0-4); B: Inflammation (A0-3); C: Steatosis (S1-3).

Figure 3 Receiver-operating characteristic curves for survival among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. A: Albumin concentration; B: Platelet count; C: Type IV collagen 7S concentration; D: Fibrosis-4 index. AUROC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, PPV: Positive predictive value, NPV: Negative predictive value.

Figure 4 Survival rates. A: Albumin concentration (albumin ≥ 3.8 g/dL vs 3.5-3.7 g/dL; P < 0.001, albumin ≥ 3.8 g/dL vs < 3.5 g/dL; P < 0.0001, albumin 3.5-3.7 g/dL vs < 3.5; P < 0.0001); B: Platelet count (platelet ≥ 15 × 10⁴/µL vs < 15 × 10⁴/µL; P < 0.0001); C: Type IV collagen 7S concentration (type IV collagen 7S ≥ 5 ng/mL vs < 5 ng/mL; P < 0.0001); D: Fibrosis-4 index (Fibrosis-4 index ≥ 2.67 vs 1.3-2.67; P < 0.001, Fibrosis-4 index C1.3-2.67 vs < 1.3; P < 0.0001, Fibrosis-4 index ≥ 2.67 vs < 2.67; P < 0.0001). FIB: Fibrosis.

Figure 5 Survival rates according to positivity for the different biomarkers. Patients with only one risk factor have relatively good survival rates at 5 yr (99.7%), 10 yr (98.3%), and 15 yr (94%). However, patients with two risk factors have lower survival rates at 5 yr (98%) and 10 yr (43%), and patients with all three risk factors have even lower survival rates at 5 yr (53%) and 10 yr (26%) (1 factor vs 2 factors, P < 0.0001; 1 factor vs 3 factors, P < 0.0001; 2 factors vs 3 factors; P < 0.05).