研究快报
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2009.
世界华人消化杂志. 2009-05-18; 17(14): 1443-1447
在线出版 2009-05-18. doi: 10.11569/wcjd.v17.i14.1443
表1 1981-1994年消化系传染病发病率与气象因子相关分析
分组平均气压平均蒸发量平均降水量平均气温平均地温最低地温最高温度最低温度
细菌性痢疾r-0.7700.703-0.591-0.225-0.207-0.5910.406-0.475
P0.0010.0050.0260.4390.4770.0260.1500.086
病毒性肝炎r-0.5700.515-0.3690.2000.215-0.2110.722-0.181
P0.0330.0590.1940.4930.4600.4690.0040.573
伤寒副伤寒r-0.7130.655-0.531-0.119-0.098-0.5030.562-0.414
P0.0040.0110.0510.6850.7380.0670.0370.141
表2 消化系传染病发病率回代值和实际值的比较
年份细菌性痢疾
病毒性肝炎
伤寒副伤寒
实际值回代值绝对误差实际值回代值绝对误差实际值回代值绝对误差
1981874.9881.16.2256.3256.30.014.4814.480.00
1982550.0502.347.797.997.90.05.135.130.00
1983348.0384.136.148.948.90.01.361.360.00
1984395.2421.326.144.935.99.02.492.490.00
1985213.3195.318.044.244.20.01.071.070.00
1986293.4149.9143.536.136.10.01.591.590.00
1987134.8176.842.032.535.93.40.250.240.01
1988163.4175.311.930.235.95.70.080.140.06
1989139.689.250.489.987.52.40.240.240.00
199098.472.426.092.892.80.00.060.100.04
199189.3120.531.2108.4108.40.00.250.230.02
199284.6131.947.360.760.61.00.220.230.04
199325.391.466.160.660.60.00.190.110.08
表3 消化系传染病发病率预测模型的回代效果比较
细菌性痢疾
病毒性肝炎
伤寒副伤寒
线性回归神经网络线性回归神经网络线性回归神经网络
MER(%)54.1616.624.602.11119.430.84
R20.95840.94670.34340.99600.75341.0000
表4 消化系传染病发病率的预测值和实际值比较
实际值预测值绝对误差(%)
细菌性痢疾41.5051.6010.10(24.3)
病毒性肝炎85.2088.203.00(3.5)
伤寒副伤寒0.120.110.01(8.3)

引文著录: 曲波, 郭海强, 关鹏, 周宝森. 气象因素对干旱地区消化系传染病疫情的影响及发病预测. 世界华人消化杂志 2009; 17(14): 1443-1447