Current and forecasted 10-year prevalence and incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States

Table 1 Background populations and numbers of cases with inflammatory bowel disease for each database

Year	CDARS (Hong Kong)			JMDC (Japan)			Merative (United States)
	Background population1	Prevalent cases	Incident cases	Background population2	Prevalent cases	Incident cases	Background population2	Prevalent cases	Incident cases
2003	6730800	1058	117
2004	6783500	1180	145
2005	6813200	1318	141
2006	6857100	1443	152
2007	6916300	1591	173
2008	6957800	1744	192
2009	6972800	1954	249
2010	7024200	2179	235	957720	1973	178	40585148	121720	17192
2011	7071600	2392	218	1493943	3201	238	47340044	152199	22854
2012	7150100	2608	270	1708625	3827	422	47687942	159425	25225
2013	7178900	2831	254	2683156	6475	519	39731680	138599	18171
2014	7229500	3062	276	2869962	7361	734	41037026	151898	19690
2015	7291300	3302	230	4191243	11039	809	26139419	101611	13998
2016	7336600	3516	275	5373179	14573	1110	25676785	102867	13189
2017	7393200	3797	353	7212775	20593	1573	24022882	99699	11440
2018	7452600	4078	320	7955602	23831	2213	24380360	101296	11162
2019	7507900	4361	343	9230836	28815	2469	22777234	97095	11756
2020	7481000	4632	284	9523091	31174	2870	21414079	91267	9126
2021	7413100	4927	399	10257371	36301	3172	20797305	91415	9596
2022	7346100	5257	334	9530324	35830	2456	17353409	84053	7659

¹The background population for Hong Kong was the mid-year population data provided by the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government (https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/tc/web_table.html?id=1A).

²The background populations for Japan Medical Data Center (Japan) and Merative (United States) were the number of individuals enrolled ≥ 1 year in Japan Medical Data Center and Merative database per year.

CDARS: Clinical data analysis and reporting system; JMDC: Japan Medical Data Center; Merative: The Merative™ MarketScan^® (“Merative” previously IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters) database.

Table 2 Age- and sex-stratified current and forecasted prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease, Crohn’s disease, and ulcerative colitis in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States

	CDARS (Hong Kong)				JMDC (Japan)				Merative (United States)
	Prevalence		Forecasted prevalence		Prevalence		Forecasted prevalence		Prevalence		Forecasted prevalence
	2003	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)	2010	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)	2010	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)
IBD	13.63	58.12	105.88 (83.01 to 128.75)	5.85 (3.38 to 8.40)1	187.78	368.34	645.79 (562.51 to 741.39)	5.78 (4.76 to 6.80)1	284.32	472.79	629.86 (569.09 to 690.63)	2.85 (1.91 to 3.79)1
Age (IBD)
< 18	2.01	11.06	15.82 (11.46 to 20.18)	3.45 (-2.43 to 9.73)	16.45	75.55	269.20 (166.46 to 435.35)	13.52 (11.55 to 15.55)1	61.83	176.92	272.82 (242.69 to 302.95)	4.27 (2.79 to 5.77)1
18-44	17.74	75.94	163.21 (152.56 to 174.61)	7.95 (5.81 to 10.15)1	281.97	557.46	983.77 (828.63 to 1167.95)	5.84 (5.02 to 6.67)1	366.71	648.57	883.45 (795.75 to 971.16)	3.06 (2.27 to 3.86)1
45-64	21.34	89.22	144.93 (123.80 to 166.07)	4.76 (2.71 to 6.86)1	264.32	440.66	589.50 (561.33 to 617.68)	2.80 (1.83 to 3.77)1	466.59	577.72	670.33 (583.13 to 757.52)	1.48 (0.61 to 2.36)1
65 +	18.86	74.04	109.06 (90.95 to 127.17)	3.81 (1.51 to 6.16)1
Sex (IBD)
Male	16.52	81.31	171.40 (128.68 to 228.31)	7.71 (5.63 to 9.84)1	217.52	421.11	730.24 (643.26 to 828.99)	5.65 (4.70 to 6.61)1	274.96	467.54	628.03 (565.96 to 690.11)	2.92 (1.99 to 3.87)1
Female	11.01	39.51	78.87 (55.40 to 112.29)	7.25 (4.25 to 10.36)1	146.54	303.51	556.79 (461.24 to 672.14)	6.25 (5.14 to 7.37)1	292.64	477.03	630.68 (569.90 to 691.46)	2.78 (1.85 to 3.72)1
UC	8.91	30.03	56.72 (43.43 to 74.06)	6.62 (3.16 to 10.23)1	149.82	303.30	545.88 (470.77 to 632.99)	6.05 (4.94 to 7.17)1	137.13	232.46	311.90 (280.58 to 343.22)	2.95 (1.62 to 4.29)1
Age (UC)
< 18	0.54	2.77	3.94 (1.88 to 5.99)	4.38 (-7.16 to 17.60)	12.84	50.70	159.29 (103.38 to 245.46)	12.12 (9.66 to 14.65)1	21.51	58.41	89.17 (77.73 to 100.62)	4.15 (1.58 to 6.78)1
18-44	10.18	29.93	52.79 (45.60 to 61.13)	5.79 (2.29 to 9.43)1	217.13	454.66	841.71 (700.68 to 1011.13)	6.35 (5.44 to 7.26)1	173.27	322.52	446.90 (402.66 to 491.13)	3.24 (2.12 to 4.37)1
45-64	16.82	61.50	85.54 (77.83 to 93.24)	3.04 (0.51 to 5.64)1	227.63	390.15	526.33 (504.47 to 548.19)	2.88 (1.86 to 3.91)1	245.73	321.87	377.06 (188.43 to 754.54)	1.54 (0.38 to 2.72)1
65 +	15.46	58.80	81.61 (75.02 to 88.20)	3.28 (0.67 to 5.96)1
Sex (UC)
Male	10.46	37.73	74.12 (66.27 to 82.89)	7.07 (3.99 to 10.26)1	165.33	332.19	594.17 (519.19 to 679.98)	5.99 (4.93 to 7.06)1	136.58	229.57	307.06 (275.04 to 339.08)	2.89 (1.56 to 4.25)1
Female	7.50	23.86	43.85 (38.89 to 49.45)	6.37 (2.47 to 10.45)1	128.45	267.82	494.06 (406.66 to 600.23)	6.31 (5.13 to 7.50)1	137.66	235.24	316.56 (285.08 to 348.03)	2.94 (1.62 to 4.28)1
CD	4.72	28.09	66.03 (44.21 to 98.64)	8.95 (5.50 to 12.54)1	37.96	65.05	101.91 (84.89 to 122.33)	4.60 (2.16 to 7.11)1	147.18	240.33	317.96 (287.07 to 348.84)	2.78 (1.47 to 4.11)1
Age (CD)
< 18	1.47	8.30	11.89 (8.29 to 15.48)	3.66 (-3.08 to 10.94)	3.61	24.85	124.03 (53.78 to 286.00)	17.55 (14.31 to 20.92)1	40.33	118.50	183.65 (163.90 to 203.40)	4.32 (2.52 to 6.16)1
18-44	7.57	46.01	116.68 (96.94 to 140.46)	9.92 (7.24 to 12.69)1	64.84	102.80	150.93 (124.77 to 182.59)	3.92 (1.95 to 5.93)1	193.44	326.05	436.55 (391.41 to 481.70)	2.92 (1.79 to 4.05)1
45-64	4.52	27.72	43.93 (36.27 to 51.59)	4.55 (0.88 to 8.38)1	36.69	50.51	52.15 (18.18 to 86.13)	0.28 (-2.69 to 3.34)	220.86	255.85	285.01 (249.96 to 320.05)	1.06 (-0.26 to 2.39)
65 +	3.39	15.24	22.93 (14.04 to 31.82)	3.91 (-1.06 to 9.15)
Sex (CD)
Male	6.06	43.58	104.55 (67.43 to 162.11)	9.1 (6.34 to 11.96)1	52.19	88.91	138.61 (113.68 to 169.03)	4.57 (2.47 to 6.71)1	138.37	237.97	320.97 (289.33 to 352.62)	2.98 (1.66 to 4.31)1
Female	3.51	15.65	28.31 (19.45 to 37.17)	5.83 (1.11 to 10.81)1	45.84	94.14	171.49 (148.86 to 197.55)	6.16 (4.18 to 8.19)1	154.99	241.79	314.13 (282.74 to 345.51)	2.61 (1.30 to 3.94)1

¹Significantly increasing/decreasing average annual percentage change.

AAPC: Average annual percentage change; CD: Crohn’s disease; CDARS: Clinical data analysis and reporting system; CI: Confidence interval; IBD: Inflammatory bowel disease; JMDC: Japan Medical Data Center; Merative: The Merative™ MarketScan^® (“Merative” previously IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters) database; PI: Prediction interval; UC: Ulcerative colitis. Prevalence is expressed per 100000 population. Prevalence was age-standardized using the World Health Organization standard population, except for age-stratified prevalence, which consisted of crude rates.

Table 3 Age- and sex-stratified current and forecasted incidence of inflammatory bowel disease, Crohn’s disease, and ulcerative colitis in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States

	CDARS (Hong Kong)				JMDC (Japan)				Merative (United States)
	Incidence		Forecasted incidence		Incidence		Forecasted incidence		Incidence		Forecasted incidence
	2003	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)	2010	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)	2010	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)
IBD	1.63	4.67	6.20 (5.22 to 7.18)	3.10 (-5.93 to 13.09)	17.36	26.48	39.03 (24.93 to 53.13)	2.88 (-0.83 to 6.75)	36.60	39.62	41.86 (35.65 to 48.08)	0 (-3.28 to 3.39)
Age (IBD)
< 18	0.93	3.62	5.11 (2.61 to 7.60)	3.28 (-6.77 to 14.55)	4.81	12.93	31.78 (18.85 to 53.56)	9.06 (4.11 to 14.31)1	10.39	17.48	26.95 (14.26 to 50.94)	4.43 (-0.24 to 9.35)
18-44	2.08	5.92	10.92 (7.09 to 16.81)	5.78 (-1.75 to 14.01)	26.35	37.03	39.36 (18.79 to 82.47)	-0.15 (-3.52 to 3.34)	43.83	48.33	50.43 (43.01 to 57.85)	0 (-2.99 to 3.09)
45-64	1.92	4.46	7.39 (3.24 to 16.82)	4.14 (-4.53 to 13.73)	18.61	26.08	26.08 (-12.24 to 64.39)	0 (-4.14 to 4.32)	63.19	56.72	56.72 (11.04 to 102.41)	0 (-2.83 to 2.91)
65 +	1.38	3.01	4.34 (2.64 to 6.04)	2.08 (-8.43 to 13.90)
Sex (IBD)
Male	1.92	6.38	8.90 (7.41 to 10.38)	3.15 (-4.45 to 11.44)	22.64	30.49	44.61 (26.81 to 62.41)	2.71 (-0.75 to 6.30)	34.71	39.36	40.60 (34.39 to 46.81)	0 (-3.33 to 3.45)
Female	1.35	3.21	4.19 (2.81 to 5.58)	2.82 (-8.06 to 15.12)	10.27	21.68	33.08 (21.34 to 44.82)	3.37 (-0.71 to 7.65)	38.30	39.79	42.96 (36.55 to 49.37)	0 (-3.24 to 3.35)
UC	0.94	2.25	2.90 (2.26 to 3.54)	2.55 (-10.11 to 17.17)	14.41	22.21	33.28 (20.33 to 46.24)	2.98 (-1.05 to 7.18)	21.12	22.79	23.57 (20.21 to 26.93)	0 (-4.35 to 4.55)
Age (UC)
< 18	0.08	0.85	0.85 (-0.62 to 2.32)	0 (-21.28 to 27.04)	3.21	8.42	21.36 (10.35 to 44.07)	9.24 (3.20 to 15.73)1	4.45	6.62	8.46 (6.06 to 10.85)	2.49 (-5.23 to 10.89)
18-44	1.26	2.76	2.76 (0.83 to 9.23)	0 (-12.26 to 13.97)	22.03	31.86	55.34 (26.54 to 115.40)	4.54 (1.24 to 7.97)1	25.07	28.11	28.44 (24.34 to 32.54)	0 (-3.97 to 4.13)
45-64	1.55	3.41	3.66 (1.18 to 6.07)	-0.12 (-10.86 to 11.92)	16.40	24.06	24.06 (-10.91 to 59.03)	0 (-4.31 to 4.50)	39.40	37.44	42.08 (34.93 to 49.24)	0 (-3.27 to 3.38)
65 +	1.26	2.22	2.56 (1.03 to 4.09)	0 (-12.70 to 14.55)
Sex (UC)
Male	1.03	2.37	2.37 (0.54 to 10.43)	0 (-13.17 to 15.17)	18.24	24.80	44.01 (21.46 to 90.30)	4.57 (0.89 to 8.42)1	20.06	22.32	22.80 (19.43 to 26.18)	0 (-4.42 to 4.63)
Female	0.88	2.17	2.93 (1.88 to 4.57)	4.46 (-8.80 to 19.98)	9.29	19.08	29.20 (18.49 to 39.91)	3.42 (-0.93 to 7.98)	21.82	23.23	24.23 (20.77 to 27.70)	0 (-4.29 to 4.48)
CD	0.69	2.43	4.86 (2.73 to 8.63)	6.96 (-4.5 to 20.14)	2.94	4.27	5.68 (3.74 to 7.62)	2.35 (-6.96 to 12.66)	15.61	16.83	18.31 (15.32 to 21.30)	0 (-4.92 to 5.18)
Age (CD)
< 18	0.85	2.77	5.83 (2.05 to 16.57)	6.93 (-3.58 to 18.88)	1.60	4.51	10.35 (4.15 to 25.82)	8.69 (0.29 to 18.01)1	6.35	10.86	10.86 (4.22 to 17.50)	0 (-6.35 to 6.78)
18-44	0.83	3.16	4.51 (3.75 to 5.28)	3.26 (-7.52 to 15.45)	4.32	5.17	4.78 (3.30 to 6.26)	0 (-9.44 to 10.42)	18.76	20.22	21.99 (18.38 to 25.59)	0 (-4.50 to 4.71)
45-64	0.37	1.05	1.11 (0.02 to 2.20)	0 (-18.79 to 23.14)	2.22	2.02	2.66 (1.77 to 3.55)	0 (-12.48 to 14.26)	23.79	19.28	19.28 (1.89 to 36.68)	0 (-4.80 to 5.04)
65 +	0.13	0.78	0.73 (-0.33 to 1.78)	0 (-22.91 to 29.72)
Sex (CD)
Male	0.90	4.01	5.28 (4.20 to 6.37)	3.67 (-6.26 to 14.79)	4.40	5.68	5.78 (2.71 to 8.86)	-0.05 (-8.65 to 9.35)	14.65	17.04	17.80 (14.84 to 20.76)	0 (-4.99 to 5.25)
Female	0.47	1.05	1.07 (0.21 to 1.93)	0 (-19.14 to 23.67)	0.98	2.61	5.00 (2.57 to 9.70)	6.10 (-4.75 to 18.46)	16.48	16.56	18.73 (15.54 to 21.92)	0 (-4.87 to 5.12)

¹Significantly increasing/decreasing average annual percentage change.

AAPC: Average annual percentage change; CD: Crohn’s disease; CDARS: Clinical data analysis and reporting system; CI: Confidence interval; IBD: Inflammatory bowel disease; JMDC: Japan Medical Data Center; Merative: The Merative™ MarketScan^® (“Merative” previously IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters) database; PI: Prediction interval; UC: Ulcerative colitis. Incidence is expressed per 100000 population. Incidence was age-standardized using the World Health Organization standard population, except for age-stratified prevalence, which consisted of crude rates.