Noninvasive prediction of esophagogastric varices in hepatitis B: An extreme gradient boosting model based on ultrasound and serology

Table 1 Basic characteristics, mean ± SD

Index	Total	Train set	Test set	P value
Liver stiffness	13.2 ± 5.0	13.2 ± 5.3	12.9 ± 4.0	0.91
Spv speed	35.3 ± 9.1	35.5 ± 9.3	34.5 ± 8.6	0.4
Platelet count	132.9 ± 63.8	131.3 ± 64.7	139.4 ± 60.2	0.23
Model for end-stage liver disease	30.2 ± 1.9	30.3 ± 1.8	29.9 ± 2.1	0.044
Creatinine	75.5 ± 27.1	76.2 ± 29.6	72.5 ± 12.9	0.74
Alanine aminotransferase	38.0 ± 39.0	36.4 ± 34.6	44.5 ± 52.8	0.046
Aspartate aminotransferase	47.8 ± 62.1	44.7 ± 53.3	60.2 ± 88.4	0.057
Total bilirubin	30.5 ± 34.5	30.7 ± 34.2	29.6 ± 36.0	0.43
Direct bilirubin	16.2 ± 27.8	16.4 ± 27.6	15.5 ± 29.0	0.48
Indirect bilirubin	14.2 ± 9.8	14.3 ± 8.9	14.0 ± 13.0	0.27
Alkaline phosphatase	108.8 ± 55.9	105.2 ± 53.1	123.0 ± 64.4	0.027
Red blood cell count	4.3 ± 0.8	4.3 ± 0.8	4.4 ± 0.7	0.35
White blood cell count	5.3 ± 1.9	5.3 ± 1.9	5.3 ± 1.6	0.64
Age	53.4 ± 12.3	53.6 ± 12.4	52.5 ± 11.8	0.57
Spleen stiffness	15.1 ± 4.8	15.2 ± 4.9	14.8 ± 4.7	0.83
pv	1.2 ± 0.2	1.2 ± 0.2	1.2 ± 0.2	0.59
pvspeed	27.5 ± 6.7	27.2 ± 6.6	28.5 ± 7.2	0.14
splong	13.3 ± 2.6	13.3 ± 2.5	13.4 ± 2.7	0.88
spwide	4.6 ± 1.0	4.7 ± 0.9	4.6 ± 1.0	0.34
spv	0.8 ± 0.2	0.8 ± 0.2	0.9 ± 0.2	0.41
Prothrombin time	15.5 ± 3.2	15.7 ± 3.4	14.8 ± 2.3	0.045
Albumin	39.7 ± 8.9	40.0 ± 8.9	38.6 ± 8.8	0.4
International normalized ratio	1.2 ± 0.3	1.3 ± 0.3	1.2 ± 0.3	0.22
Sex, n (%)
Female	84 (27.1)	67 (27.0)	17 (27.4)	1
Male	226 (72.9)	181 (73.0)	45 (72.6)	-
Child-Pugh class, n (%)
1	168 (54.2)	131 (52.8)	37 (59.7)	0.29
2	119 (38.4)	100 (40.3)	19 (30.6)	-
3	23 (7.4)	17 (6.9)	6 (9.7)	-
Collateral, n (%)
No	244 (78.7)	196 (79.0)	48 (77.4)	0.86
Yes	66 (21.3)	52 (21.0)	14 (22.6)	-
Severe EGV, n (%)
No	186 (60.0)	149 (60.1)	37 (59.7)	1
Yes	124 (40.0)	99 (39.9)	25 (40.3)	-

Spv speed: Spleen vein speed; pv: Portal vein; pvspeed: Portal vein speed; splong: Spleen length; spwide: Spleen width; spv: Splenic vein; EGV: Esophagogastric varices.

Table 2 Data in training cohort, mean ± SD

Index	Total	Low risk	High risk	P value
Liver stiffness	13.2 ± 5.3	13.2 ± 5.9	13.3 ± 4.2	0.33
Spv speed	35.5 ± 9.3	36.4 ± 9.2	34.1 ± 9.3	0.026
Platelet count	131.3 ± 64.7	128.0 ± 73.2	136.1 ± 49.2	0.048
Model for end-stage liver disease	30.3 ± 1.8	30.5 ± 2.0	30.0 ± 1.5	0.25
Creatinine	76.2 ± 29.6	76.9 ± 36.8	75.2 ± 12.8	0.018
Alanine aminotransferase	36.4 ± 34.6	40.0 ± 42.8	30.8 ± 14.1	0.88
Aspartate aminotransferase	44.7 ± 53.3	43.8 ± 49.7	46.1 ± 58.5	0.25
Total bilirubin	30.7 ± 34.2	28.3 ± 37.1	34.3 ± 29.2	< 0.001
Direct bilirubin	16.4 ± 27.6	14.5 ± 29.4	19.1 ± 24.5	< 0.001
Indirect bilirubin	14.3 ± 8.9	13.8 ± 9.8	14.9 ± 7.4	0.042
Alkaline phosphatase	105.2 ± 53.1	101.3 ± 50.0	111.1 ± 57.3	0.37
Red blood cell count	4.3 ± 0.8	4.3 ± 0.9	4.2 ± 0.7	0.82
White blood cell count	5.3 ± 1.9	5.4 ± 2.1	5.3 ± 1.7	0.67
Age	53.6 ± 12.4	52.3 ± 13.7	55.6 ± 10.0	0.025
Spleen stiffness	15.2 ± 4.9	13.7 ± 4.5	17.3 ± 4.7	< 0.001
pv	1.2 ± 0.2	1.3 ± 0.2	1.2 ± 0.1	0.16
pvspeed	27.2 ± 6.6	28.0 ± 6.8	26.0 ± 6.1	0.03
splong	13.3 ± 2.5	13.6 ± 2.8	12.9 ± 2.0	0.11
spwide	4.7 ± 0.9	4.5 ± 0.9	4.8 ± 0.9	0.012
spv	0.8 ± 0.2	0.9 ± 0.2	0.8 ± 0.2	0.016
Prothrombin time	15.7 ± 3.4	15.5 ± 3.2	17.8 ± 3.6	0.032
Albumin	40.0 ± 8.9	40.7 ± 8.9	25.13 ± 6.5	0.015
International normalized ratio	1.3 ± 0.3	1.2 ± 0.3	1.3 ± 0.4	0.25
Sex, n (%)
Female	67 (27.0)	26 (17.4)	41 (41.4)	< 0.001
Male	181 (73.0)	123 (82.6)	58 (58.6)	-
Child–Pugh class, n (%)
1	131 (52.8)	71 (47.7)	60 (60.6)	0.025
2	100 (40.3)	70 (47.0)	30 (30.3)	-
3	17 (6.9)	8 (5.4)	9 (9.1)	-
Collateral, n (%)
No	196 (79.0)	120 (80.5)	76 (76.8)	0.53
Yes	52 (21.0)	29 (19.5)	23 (23.2)	-

Spv speed: Spleen vein speed; pv: Portal vein; pvspeed: Portal vein speed; splong: Spleen length; spwide: Spleen width; spv: Splenic vein; EGV: Esophagogastric varices.

Table 3 Statistical measures for all models

Model name	Area under curve	Accuracy	Precision	Recall	Specificity	F1 score	Positive predict value	Positive predict value
Random forest	0.97 (0.94-1.00)	0.93 (0.87-0.98)	0.92 (0.85-1.00)	0.87 (0.72-1.00)	0.95 (0.92-1.00)	0.88 (0.80-0.98)	0.92 (0.85-1.00)	0.91 (0.84-1.00)
AdaBoost	0.94 (0.88-0.99)	0.84 (0.76-0.94)	0.85 (0.69-1.00)	0.71 (0.53-0.90)	0.91 (0.84-1.00)	0.76 (0.62-0.91)	0.88 (0.69-1.00)	0.85 (0.74-0.95)
Artificial neural network	0.77 (0.61-0.85)	0.63 (0.52-0.74)	0.51 (0.30-0.70)	0.49 (0.31-0.73)	0.69 (0.55-0.83)	0.47 (0.32-0.67)	0.46 (0.30-0.70)	0.73 (0.56-0.85)
Decision tree	0.79 (0.67-0.89)	0.81 (0.69-0.90)	0.74 (0.56-0.94)	0.69 (0.50-0.86)	0.85 (0.75-0.97)	0.71 (0.55-0.86)	0.74 (0.56-0.94)	0.84 (0.71-0.93)
Extra tree	0.97 (0.95-1.00)	0.94 (0.87-0.98)	0.91 (0.83-1.00)	0.85 (0.71-1.00)	0.91 (0.91-1.00)	0.88 (0.80-0.98)	0.93 (0.83-1.00)	0.92 (0.84-1.00)
Gradient boosting machine	0.92 (0.84-0.98)	0.86 (0.75-0.94)	0.83 (0.67-1.00)	0.72 (0.55-0.92)	0.91 (0.83-1.00)	0.76 (0.64-0.91)	0.84 (0.67-1.00)	0.84 (0.75-0.96)
K-nearest neighbors	0.89 (0.80-0.96)	0.82 (0.71-0.90)	0.73 (0.54-0.90)	0.72 (0.55-0.91)	0.83 (0.72-0.95)	0.68 (0.57-0.86)	0.73 (0.54-0.90)	0.85 (0.72-0.95)
Lightgbm	0.96 (0.91-0.99)	0.86 (0.79-0.95)	0.81 (0.73-1.00)	0.74 (0.54-0.92)	0.94 (0.87-1.00)	0.79 (0.65-0.92)	0.85 (0.74-1.00)	0.86 (0.76-0.95)
Logistic regression	0.73 (0.60-0.85)	0.67 (0.55-0.77)	0.54 (0.33-0.74)	0.61 (0.41-0.82)	0.68 (0.53-0.83)	0.58 (0.38-0.73)	0.58 (0.33-0.74)	0.76 (0.61-0.89)
Support vector machine	0.74 (0.62-0.86)	0.61 (0.50-0.73)	0.47 (0.23-0.72)	0.34 (0.15-0.56)	0.77 (0.64-0.90)	0.39 (0.19-0.58)	0.47 (0.23-0.72)	0.63 (0.52-0.80)
Extreme gradient boosting	0.96 (0.92-0.99)	0.86 (0.81-0.97)	0.87 (0.74-1.00)	0.78 (0.62-0.95)	0.94 (0.86-1.00)	0.83 (0.70-0.94)	0.84 (0.74-1.00)	0.88 (0.78-0.98)

AdaBoost: Adaptive boosting.