Development of a prognostic model for one-year surgery risk in Crohn’s disease patients: A retrospective study

Table 1 Patient baseline characteristics

Characteristic	n (%)/mean ± SD
Male/female	738/264 (73.65/26.35)
Age at diagnosis (yr)	28.41 ± 11.05
Drinking/not drinking	58/944 (5.79/94.21)
Smoking/not smoking	150/852 (14.97/85.03)
Body mass index at diagnosis (kg/m2)	18.58 ± 2.90
Year of follow-up (mo)	53.54 ± 13.10
Montreal classification
Age at diagnosis (%)
A1	119 (11.88)
A2	744 (74.25)
A3	139 (13.87)
Location at diagnosis
L1	145 (14.47)
L2	104 (10.38)
L3	678 (67.66)
L4	75 (7.49)
Behavior at diagnosis
B1	614 (61.28)
B2	185 (18.46)
B3	203 (20.26)
CRP at diagnosis	19.84 ± 24.25
ESR at diagnosis	34.58 ± 28.48
Alb at diagnosis	39.14 ± 25.65
Previous perianal surgery	299 (29.84)
Previous intestinal surgery	409 (40.82)
Complication	287 (28.64)
Stenosis	129 (12.87)
Perforation	139 (13.87)
GI bleeding	19 (1.90)
Treatment
5-aminosalicylic acid	202 (20.16)
Immunosuppressants	746 (74.45)
Corticosteroids	529 (52.79)
Biologics	462 (46.11)
EEN	230 (22.95)
Surgery within 1 yr after diagnosis	243(24.25)
Surgery within the follow-up period	473 (47.21)

CRP: C-reactive protein; ESR: Erythrocyte sedimentation rate; Alb: Albumin; GI: Gastrointestinal; EEN: Exclusive enteral nutrition.

Table 2 Factors associated with possibility of one-year surgery in patients with Crohn’s disease

Factor	Univariate analysis			Multivariable logistic regression
	OR	95%CI	P	OR	95%CI	P
Gender (male vs female)	0.793	0.565-1.113	0.180
Age (yr)	1.012	0.999-1.025	0.070
Location (L1 vs L2/L3/L4)
L2	0.729	0.401-1.324	0.300
L3	0.853	0.568-1.282	0.445
L4	0.988	0.526-1.855	0.971
Behavior (B1 vs B2/B3)
B2	5.771	3.837-8.680	< 0.001	6.693	3.437-13.032	< 0.001
B3	14.998	10.113-22.242	< 0.001	14.405	7.208-28.790	< 0.001
Maximum BWT	1.391	1.278-1.514	< 0.001	1.965	1.660-2.327	< 0.001
Drinking	1.702	0.970-2.985	0.064
Smoking	4.359	3.034-6.262	< 0.001	4.135	2.149-7.953	< 0.001
BMI	0.901	0.854-0.950	< 0.001	0.873	0.786-0.968	0.01
Previous perianal surgery	6.776	4.943-9.288	< 0.001	9.483	5.317-16.912	< 0.001
Previous intestinal surgery	5.199	3.794-7.125	< 0.001	8.887	5.045-15.656	< 0.001
5-aminosalicylic acid use	0.709	0.485-1.038	0.077
Immunosuppressants use	0.974	0.700-1.355	0.877
Corticosteroid use	0.931	0.697-1.243	0.627
Biologics use	0.283	0.204-0.392	< 0.001	0.264	0.146-0.476	< 0.001
Exclusive enteral nutrition use	0.359	0.235-0.550	< 0.001	0.089	0.038-0.205	< 0.001
CRP at diagnosis (pathological vs normal)	1.020	1.014-1.026	< 0.001	1.022	1.009-1.036	0.001
ESR at diagnosis (pathological vs normal)	1.005	1.000-1.010	0.058
Alb at diagnosis (pathological vs normal)	0.981	0.962-1.001	0.058

CI: Confidence interval; BWT: Bowel wall thickness; BMI: Body mass index; CRP: C-reactive protein; ESR: Erythrocyte sedimentation rate; Alb: Albumin.