Estimating survival benefit of adjuvant therapy based on a Bayesian network prediction model in curatively resected advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma

Table 1 Demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma and the calculation and rank of importance for prognostic factors in survival time

Variable	Value	Frequency, n (%)	Priori probability (%)	Posterior probability (%)	Importance	Rank
Sex	1 (male)	261 (31.91)	33.26	48.69	0.0274	16
	2 (female)	557 (68.09)	66.72	54.05
Age	1 (19-64)	256 (31.30)	30.84	39.55	0.1087	10
	2 (65-75)	258 (31.54)	31.71	42.31
	3 (76-97)	304 (37.16)	37.46	56.74
Grade	1 (well)	70 (8.56)	8.36	43.75	0.1383	8
	2 (moderately)	363 (44.38)	45.30	37.69
	3 (poorly)	376 (45.97)	45.82	56.27
	4 (undifferentiated)	9 (1.10)	0.52	66.67
Positive Ln	0 (0)	172 (21.03)	65.26	47.93	0.0737	13
	1 (1-3)	229 (28.00)	30.47	43.19
	2 (> 3)	27 (3.30)	4.27	56.86
	NA	390 (47.68)
Number Ln	0 (0)	389 (47.56)	46.52	56.93	0.1440	6
	1 (1-3)	266 (32.52)	34.49	40.19
	2 (4-6)	76 (9.29)	8.01	34.78
	3 (> 6)	87 (10.64)	10.98	31.75
Surg Prim Site	40	627 (76.65)	77.00	49.32	0.1068	11
	60	191 (23.35)	23.00	38.64
Scope Reg Ln Sur	0	387 (47.31)	46.69	57.09	0.1824	4
	1	5 (0.61)	0.52	33.33
	3	7 (0.86)	1.05	16.67
	4	264 (32.27)	33.80	40.72
	5	153 (18.70)	17.94	33.98
	6	1 (0.12)
	7	1 (0.12)
Surg Oth Reg	0	659 (80.56)	79.97	48.80	0.1205	9
	1	17 (2.08)	2.44	42.86
	2	121 (14.79)	14.81	40.00
	4	15 (1.83)	2.09	33.33
	5	6 (0.73)	0.70	25.00
Seer historic stage	1	197 (24.08)	23.87	48.91	0.0292	15
	2	514 (62.84)	62.72	45.56
	4	107 (13.08)	13.41	49.35
Tumor size	0 (0-10 mm)	20 (2.44)	3.49	39.69	0.0797	12
	1 (11-30 mm)	228 (27.87)	40.64	42.98
	2 (31-50 mm)	181 (22.13)	31.19	44.46
	3(> 50 mm)	132 (16.14)	24.68	57.31
	NA	257 (31.42)
T stage	300 (T3)	768 (93.89)	92.86	45.40	0.2045	3
	400 (T4)	50 (6.11)	7.14	65.85
N stage	0 (N0)	534 (65.28)	64.98	47.99	0.0321	14
	100 (N1)	284 (34.72)	35.02	44.78
AJCC stage	520 (stage 3A)	515 (62.96)	62.72	47.50	0.1423	7
	530 (stage 3B)	253 (30.93)	30.14	41.04
	720 (stage 4A)	50 (6.11)	7.14	68.85
Radiation	0 (no)	592 (72.37)	71.78	56.07	0.3261	1
	1 (yes)	226 (27.63)	28.22	23.46
Radiation sequence	0 (no)	592 (72.37)	71.78	56.07	0.1805	5
	2 (radiation before surgery)	4 (0.49)	0.35	50.00
	3 (radiation after surgery)	222 (27.14)	27.87	23.12
Chemo- therapy	0 (no)	473 (57.82)	57.14	58.84	0.2795	2
	1(yes)	345 (42.18)	42.86	30.89
Vital status	1 (Survival)	197 (24.08)
	4 (Dead)	621 (75.92)
Survival months	≤ 9	383 (46.82)	46.86
	> 9	435 (53.18)	53.14

NA: Not available; Positive Ln: The exact number of regional lymph nodes examined by the pathologist that were found to contain metastases; Number Ln: The total number of regional lymph nodes that were removed and examined by the pathologist; Surg Prim Site: Surgery of primary site. 40: Total surgical removal of primary site; 60: Radical surgery; Scope Reg LN Sur: Scope of regional lymph node surgery; 0: No regional lymph nodes removed or aspirated; 1: Biopsy or aspiration of regional lymph node; 3: Number of regional lymph nodes removed unknown; not stated, 4: 1 to 3 regional lymph nodes removed, 5: 4 or more regional lymph nodes removed; 7: Sentinel node biopsy and code 3, 4, or 5 at different times; Surg Oth Reg: Surgical procedure of other site; 0: None, diagnosed at autopsy; 1: Nonprimary surgical procedure performed; 2: Nonprimary surgical procedure to other regional sites; 4: Nonprimary surgical procedure to distant site; 5: Combination of codes 2, 3, or 4; SEER historic stage: 1 Localized, 2 Regional, 3 Distant. AJCC: American Joint Committee on Cancer.

Table 2 Confusion matrix, reliability, and accuracy of Bayesian network model

	Survival time (n)	≤ 9 m (n = 114)	> 9 m (n = 130)
Confusion matrix (n)	≤ 9 m (128)	84	44
	> 9 m (116)	30	86
Reliability (%)	≤ 9 m (128)	65.62%	34.38%
	> 9 m (116)	25.86%	74.14%
Accuracy (%)	≤ 9 m (128)	73.68%	33.85%
	> 9 m (116)	26.32%	66.15%

Table 3 Survival prediction table as established by T stage, N stage, radiation, and chemotherapy

T stage	N stage	Radiation	Chemotherapy	> 9 m (%)
3	0	0	0	41.35
3	0	0	1	58.29
3	0	1	0	75.42
3	0	1	1	76.62
3	1	0	0	34.59
3	1	0	1	64.08
3	1	1	0	69.71
3	1	1	1	80.71
4	0	0	0	28.50
4	0	0	1	44.14
4	0	1	0	63.44
4	0	1	1	64.95
4	1	0	0	14.85
4	1	0	1	37.03
4	1	1	0	43.14
4	1	1	1	57.97

T stage: 3 T3 stage, 4 T4 stage; N stage: 0 N0 stage, 1 N1 stage; Radiation and chemotherapy: 0 No, 1 Yes.