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Copyright ©The Author(s) 2016.
World J Gastroenterol. Oct 7, 2016; 22(37): 8314-8321
Published online Oct 7, 2016. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v22.i37.8314
Table 1 Summary of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models
IPMCU-HCCGAG-HCCREACH-BLSM-HCCmREACH-BPAGE-B
Full nameIndividual Prediction ModelChinese University-HCCGuide with Age, Gender, HBV DNA, Core Promoter Mutations and Cirrhosis-HCCRisk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis BLiver Stiffness Measurement-HCCModified Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B
CalculationRisk Index (RI) for HCC = eA, A = -6.2543 + (1.7219 × liver cirrhosis) + (1.3145 × old age over 40 yr) + (1.2631 × chronic HCV infection) + (0.8257 × AFP > 20 ng/mL) + (0.7754 × chronic HBV infection) + (0.7339 × chronic hepatitis) + (0.5840 × heavy alcoholics) + (0.3 × man) + (0.2830 × ALT > 40 IU/L) + (0.221 × unknown alcohol history)Age (> 50 yr = 3; ≤ 50 = 0) + albumin ( ≤ 35 g/L = 20; > 35 = 0) + bilirubin (> 18 μmol/L = 1.5; ≤ 18 = 0) + HBV DNA (< 4 log copies/mL = 0; 4-6 = 1; > 6 = 4) + cirrhosis (yes = 15; no = 0)14 × sex (male = 1; female = 0) + age (in years) + 3 × HBV DNA (log copies/mL) + 33 × cirrhosis presence = 1; absence = 0)Male sex: 2 points Age: 1 point for every 5 yr from 35 to 65 yr of age (0-6 points) ALT (IU/L): 15-<45 (1 point), ≥ 45 (2 points) Positive HBeAg: 2 points HBV DNA (log copies/mL): 4-< 5 (3 points), 5-< 6 (5 points), ≥ 6 (4 points)Age (> 50 yr = 10; ≤ 50 = 0) + albumin ( ≤ 35 g/L = 1; > 35 = 0) + HBV DNA (> 200000 IU/mL = 5; ≤ 200000 = 0) + liver stiffness ( ≤ 8.0 kPa = 0; < 8.0-12.0 = 8; > 12.0 = 14)Male sex: 2 points Age: 1 point for every 5 yr from 35 to 65 yr of age (0-6 points) ALT (IU/L): 15-< 45 (1 point), ≥ 45 (2 points) Positive HBeAg: 2 points Liver stiffness values: < 8.0 kPa (0 point), 8.0-13.0 (2 points), > 13.0 kPa (4 points)Age; < 30 (-4 points), 30-39 (-2 points), 40-49 (0 point), 50-59 (2 points), 60-69 (4 points), ≥ 70 (6 points) Male sex: 5 points Platelets (mm3): ≥ 200 × 103 (0 point), 100× 103-< 200 × 103 (6 points), < 100 × 103 (11 points)
Table 2 Comparisons of published hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models
IPMCU-HCCGAG-HCCREACH-BLSM-HCCmREACH-BPAGE-B
Number of patients99410058203584103513081325
Place of developmentSouth KoreaHong KongHong KongTaiwanHong KongSouth KoreaEurope
RaceAsianAsianAsianAsianAsianAsianCaucasian
Age (yr)4840.645.7465052
HBeAg-negative (%)56.684.87560.384
Cirrhosis (%)38.115.103217.820
Follow-up (yr)2.79.945.62125.86.33.6
Antiviral therapy (%)15.1003864.8100
HCC (%)90 (0.1)105 (10.4)40 (4.9)131 (3.7)38 (3.7)125 (9.6)51 (3.8)
Components of the risk scoresAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAgeAge
MaleAlbuminMaleMaleAlbuminMaleMale
PlateletBilirubinBCP mutationALTHBV DNAALTPlatelet
CirrhosisCirrhosisCirrhosisHBeAg-positiveLS valueHBeAg-positive
AlbuminHBV DNAHBV DNAHBV DNALS value
AFP
Heavy alcoholics
Risk scoresLow (< 5)Low (< 5)Low (< 100)Low (0-5)Low (< 11)Low (< 10)Low ( ≤ 9)
Intermediate (5-15)Intermediate (5-19)Intermediate (6-11)Intermediate (10-17)
High (> 15)High (> 19)High (≥ 100)High (12-18)High (≥ 11)High (≥ 10)High (≥ 18)
NPV (%)97% at 10 yr99% at 10 yr98% at 10 yr99.4% at 5 yr96.8% at 5 yr100% 5 yr