Prediction models of hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis B patients

Table 1 Summary of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models

	IPM	CU-HCC	GAG-HCC	REACH-B	LSM-HCC	mREACH-B	PAGE-B
Full name	Individual Prediction Model	Chinese University-HCC	Guide with Age, Gender, HBV DNA, Core Promoter Mutations and Cirrhosis-HCC	Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B	Liver Stiffness Measurement-HCC	Modified Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B
Calculation	Risk Index (RI) for HCC = eA, A = -6.2543 + (1.7219 × liver cirrhosis) + (1.3145 × old age over 40 yr) + (1.2631 × chronic HCV infection) + (0.8257 × AFP > 20 ng/mL) + (0.7754 × chronic HBV infection) + (0.7339 × chronic hepatitis) + (0.5840 × heavy alcoholics) + (0.3 × man) + (0.2830 × ALT > 40 IU/L) + (0.221 × unknown alcohol history)	Age (> 50 yr = 3; ≤ 50 = 0) + albumin ( ≤ 35 g/L = 20; > 35 = 0) + bilirubin (> 18 μmol/L = 1.5; ≤ 18 = 0) + HBV DNA (< 4 log copies/mL = 0; 4-6 = 1; > 6 = 4) + cirrhosis (yes = 15; no = 0)	14 × sex (male = 1; female = 0) + age (in years) + 3 × HBV DNA (log copies/mL) + 33 × cirrhosis presence = 1; absence = 0)	Male sex: 2 points Age: 1 point for every 5 yr from 35 to 65 yr of age (0-6 points) ALT (IU/L): 15-<45 (1 point), ≥ 45 (2 points) Positive HBeAg: 2 points HBV DNA (log copies/mL): 4-< 5 (3 points), 5-< 6 (5 points), ≥ 6 (4 points)	Age (> 50 yr = 10; ≤ 50 = 0) + albumin ( ≤ 35 g/L = 1; > 35 = 0) + HBV DNA (> 200000 IU/mL = 5; ≤ 200000 = 0) + liver stiffness ( ≤ 8.0 kPa = 0; < 8.0-12.0 = 8; > 12.0 = 14)	Male sex: 2 points Age: 1 point for every 5 yr from 35 to 65 yr of age (0-6 points) ALT (IU/L): 15-< 45 (1 point), ≥ 45 (2 points) Positive HBeAg: 2 points Liver stiffness values: < 8.0 kPa (0 point), 8.0-13.0 (2 points), > 13.0 kPa (4 points)	Age; < 30 (-4 points), 30-39 (-2 points), 40-49 (0 point), 50-59 (2 points), 60-69 (4 points), ≥ 70 (6 points) Male sex: 5 points Platelets (mm3): ≥ 200 × 103 (0 point), 100× 103-< 200 × 103 (6 points), < 100 × 103 (11 points)

HCC: Hepatocellular carcinoma; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; ALT: Alanine aminotransferase.

Table 2 Comparisons of published hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models

	IPM	CU-HCC	GAG-HCC	REACH-B	LSM-HCC	mREACH-B	PAGE-B
Number of patients	994	1005	820	3584	1035	1308	1325
Place of development	South Korea	Hong Kong	Hong Kong	Taiwan	Hong Kong	South Korea	Europe
Race	Asian	Asian	Asian	Asian	Asian	Asian	Caucasian
Age (yr)		48	40.6	45.7	46	50	52
HBeAg-negative (%)			56.6	84.8	75	60.3	84
Cirrhosis (%)		38.1	15.1	0	32	17.8	20
Follow-up (yr)	2.7	9.94	5.62	12	5.8	6.3	3.6
Antiviral therapy (%)		15.1	0	0	38	64.8	100
HCC (%)	90 (0.1)	105 (10.4)	40 (4.9)	131 (3.7)	38 (3.7)	125 (9.6)	51 (3.8)
Components of the risk scores	Age	Age	Age	Age	Age	Age	Age
	Male	Albumin	Male	Male	Albumin	Male	Male
	Platelet	Bilirubin	BCP mutation	ALT	HBV DNA	ALT	Platelet
	Cirrhosis	Cirrhosis	Cirrhosis	HBeAg-positive	LS value	HBeAg-positive
	Albumin	HBV DNA	HBV DNA	HBV DNA		LS value
	AFP
	Heavy alcoholics
Risk scores	Low (< 5)	Low (< 5)	Low (< 100)	Low (0-5)	Low (< 11)	Low (< 10)	Low ( ≤ 9)
	Intermediate (5-15)	Intermediate (5-19)		Intermediate (6-11)			Intermediate (10-17)
	High (> 15)	High (> 19)	High (≥ 100)	High (12-18)	High (≥ 11)	High (≥ 10)	High (≥ 18)
NPV (%)		97% at 10 yr	99% at 10 yr	98% at 10 yr	99.4% at 5 yr	96.8% at 5 yr	100% 5 yr

HCC: Hepatocellular carcinoma; HBeAg: Hepatitis B e antigen; ALT: Alanine aminotransferase; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; LS: Liver stiffness; AFP: α-fetoprotein; NPV: Negative predictive value.