Topic Highlight
Copyright ©2012 Baishideng Publishing Group Co.
World J Gastroenterol. Aug 7, 2012; 18(29): 3806-3813
Published online Aug 7, 2012. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v18.i29.3806
Table 1 Clinical predictors of unfavourable course of Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis
StudyCohort typeNo. of patientsDefinition or marker of unfavourable courseIndependent predictors of unfavourable course, present at diagnosis
Crohn’s disease
Within the first 5 yr after diagnosis
Beaugerie et al[10], 2006Referral centre (Saint-Antoine)1188Disabling disease1Age < 40 yr Perianal disease Need for steroids for treating the first flare
Henriksen et al[12], 2007Population-based (IBSEN)200Intestinal resection within the study periodUpper gastrointestinal lesions
Loly et al[11], 2008Referral centre (Liège)361Disabling disease1Perianal disease Need for steroids for treating the first flare Ileo-colonic lesions
Within the first 10 yr after diagnosis
Wolters et al[14], 2006Population-based (EC-IBD)358First recurrenceUpper gastrointestinal lesions Age < 40 yr
Solberg et al[13], 2007Population-based (IBSEN)197First surgical operationAge < 40 yr Stricturing and penetrating behaviour2 (including perianal fistulas and abscesses) Terminal ileal location
Ulcerative colitis Within the first 5 yr after diagnosis
Henriksen et al[12], 2007Population-based (IBSEN)454Relapse during the study periodFemale gender Younger age
Within the first 10 yr after diagnosis
Langholz et al[2], 1994Population-based (county of Copenhagen)1161Relapsing or chronic active courseLess systemic symptoms (fever, weight loss)
ColectomyExtensive colitis High disease activity (including systemic symptoms)
Höie et al[56], 2007Population-based (EC-IBD)771Frequent relapseFemale gender Younger age Non-smoking status
Höie et al[57], 2007Population-based (EC-IBD)781ColectomyExtensive colitis
Solberg et al[4], 2009Population-based (IBSEN)423ColectomyExtensive colitis
Table 2 Validation of the positive predictive value of Saint-Antoine predictors
StudyCohort typeNo. of patientsPrevalence of unfavourable course2 (%)Positive predictive value of the presence of 2 or 3 predictors1 for predicting 5 yr unfavourable clinical course (%)
Reference study
Beaugerie et al[10], 2006Saint-Antoine referral population112385.22 predictors: 91 3 predictors: 93
Validating populations
Beaugerie et al[10], 2006Independent subsequent sample of the Saint-Antoine referral population30285.22 predictors: 84 3 predictors: 91
Loly et al[11], 2008Liege referral population36157.92 or 3 predictors: 67
Beaugerie et al[62], 2009Population-based population (Olmstedt county)42374.22 or 3 predictors: 74