Prognostic model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in liver cirrhosis: A Chinese multicenter study

Figure 1 Study flow chart. EGVB: Esophagogastric variceal bleeding.

Figure 2 The nomogram, time-dependent concordance index and calibration curve. A: The nomogram for predicting variceal rebleeding; B-E: Risk stratification was based on the total points: Low-risk group (score < 117.3, green background), medium-risk (score 1173-142.7, yellow background) and high-risk (score > 142.7, red background). The time-dependent concordance index (C-index) of the rebleeding event prediction following endoscopic treatment model compared with other existing scores/criteria for the predicting variceal rebleeding in the derivation cohort (B) and in the external validation cohort (D). Calibration curves for 6 weeks, 1 year, and 2 years variceal rebleeding prediction in the derivation cohort (C) and in the external validation cohort (E). WBC: White blood cell; AST: Aspartate aminotransferase; ALB: Albumin; REPET: Rebleeding event prediction following endoscopic treatment.

Figure 3 Area under receiver operating curve for variceal rebleeding in the derivation cohort and external cohort with 6 weeks, 1 year, and 2 years. A: Area under receiver operating curve for variceal rebleeding in the derivation cohort with 6 weeks; B: Area under receiver operating curve for variceal rebleeding in the derivation cohort with 1 year; C: Area under receiver operating curve for variceal rebleeding in the derivation cohort with 2 years; D: Area under receiver operating curve for variceal rebleeding in external cohort with 6 weeks; E: Area under receiver operating curve for variceal rebleeding in external cohort with 1 year; F: Area under receiver operating curve for variceal rebleeding in external cohort with 2 years. AUC: Area under the receiver operating curve; REPET: Rebleeding event prediction following endoscopic treatment; CTP: Child-Turcotte-Pugh; MELD: Model for end-stage liver disease; FIB-4: Fibrosis 4; ALBI: Albumin-bilirubin.

Figure 4 Decision curve analysis for variceal rebleeding in the derivation cohort and external cohort with 6 weeks, 1 year, and 2 years. A: Decision curve analysis for variceal rebleeding in the derivation cohort with 6 weeks; B: Decision curve analysis for variceal rebleeding in the derivation cohort with 1 year; C: Decision curve analysis for variceal rebleeding in the derivation cohort with 2 year; D: Decision curve analysis for variceal rebleeding in external cohort with 6 weeks; E: Decision curve analysis for variceal rebleeding in external cohort with 1 year; F: Decision curve analysis for variceal rebleeding in external cohort with 2 years. REPET: Rebleeding event prediction following endoscopic treatment; CTP: Child-Turcotte-Pugh; MELD: Model for end-stage liver disease; FIB-4: Fibrosis 4; ALBI: Albumin-bilirubin.

Figure 5 Risk stratification for variceal rebleeding. A: Optimal thresholds for prognostic scores (using X-tile software); B and C: The Kaplan-Meier curves for the different risk groups in the derivation (B) and validation cohorts (C).