Development and external validation of models to predict acute respiratory distress syndrome related to severe acute pancreatitis

Figure 1 Nomograms of new predictive models. A: Nomogram of severe acute pancreatitis predictive model; B: Nomogram of acute respiratory distress syndrome prediction model. SAP: Severe acute pancreatitis; ARDS: Acute respiratory distress syndrome; HR: Heart rate; RR: Respiratory rate; Ca: Serum calcium concentration; BUN: Blood urea nitrogen.

Figure 2 Receiver operating characteristic curves of different predictive models in derivation and validation cohort. A: Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) predictive models in derivation cohort; B: ROC curves of SAP predictive models in validation cohort; C: ROC curves of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) predictive models in derivation cohort; D: ROC curves of ARDS predictive models in validation cohort. BISAP: Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis; qSOFA: Quick sequential organ failure assessment; SIRS: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

Figure 3 Calibration curves of new predictive models. A: Calibration plot of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) predictive model in derivation cohort; B: Calibration plot of SAP predictive model in validation cohort; C: Calibration plot of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) predictive model in derivation cohort; D: Calibration plot of ARDS predictive model in validation cohort.

Figure 4 Decision curve analysis of new predictive models. A: Decision curve analysis of severe acute pancreatitis predictive model in derivation and validation cohort; B: Decision curve analysis of acute respiratory distress syndrome predictive model in derivation and validation cohort.